Russia · Premier League

Fakel vs FC Orenburg

Kick-off 13:30 · Sat, Aug 22

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

52% confidence

Fakel 52.0% Draw 26.0% FC Orenburg 22.0%

Over 2.5 - 56% BTTS - 58%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 0.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 10.9%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to FC Orenburg: 1 points versus 8 across the last 4 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.58 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.9%

Exact-score model probability

Fakel

L D L L

Form 0-1-3 Goals 3:6 Scored/game 0.75 Conceded/game 1.5

FC Orenburg

D D L W L W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 5:9 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Fakel win52.0%

Draw26.0%

FC Orenburg win22.0%

Over 1.5 goals80.2%

Over 2.5 goals55.7%

Over 3.5 goals33.3%

Both teams to score57.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

91.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

91.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

86.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)76.8%

Home or Draw (1X)76.5%

Draw No Bet - Home69.5%

Both Halves Over 0.558.3%

Goal in Both Halves58.3%

Home Win53.4%

Draw or Away (X2)46.6%

Draw No Bet - Away30.5%

Away Win23.4%

Draw23.1%

Exactly 1 Goal15.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.6%

Under 5.5 Goals92.5%

Under 4.5 Goals83.0%

Over 1.5 Goals78.7%

Under 3.5 Goals66.7%

2-4 Goals61.7%

1-3 Goals61.2%

Over 2.5 Goals55.7%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

2-3 Goals45.4%

Under 2.5 Goals44.3%

1-2 Goals38.9%

3-4 Goals38.7%

Over 3.5 Goals33.3%

4+ Goals33.3%

Exactly 2 Goals23.0%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Under 1.5 Goals21.3%

Over 4.5 Goals17.0%

Over 5.5 Goals7.5%

Under 0.5 Goals5.4%

Exactly 0 Goals5.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score83.4%

Away Team to Score67.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)56.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)43.9%

Home Clean Sheet32.8%

Home Win to Nil27.4%

Away Clean Sheet16.5%

Away Win to Nil11.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.583.4%

Away Over 0.567.2%

Home Over 1.553.7%

Away Exactly 136.6%

Away Exactly 032.8%

Away Over 1.530.6%

Home Exactly 129.8%

Home Over 2.526.9%

Home 3+ Goals26.9%

Home Exactly 226.8%

Away Exactly 220.4%

Home Exactly 016.5%

Away Over 2.510.2%

Away 3+ Goals10.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)86.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away86.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)76.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home76.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)70.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away70.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)53.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)46.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away46.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)30.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home30.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)23.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw23.4%

Home to win by 123.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.3%

Home to win by 216.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.5%

Away to win by 114.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)13.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home13.6%

Home to win by 3+13.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)8.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away8.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.3%

Away to win by 26.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.7%

Away to win by 3+2.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.545.2%

Home & Over 2.534.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.533.4%

Home & No BTTS27.4%

Home & BTTS26.0%

Home & Under 2.518.6%

Draw & BTTS17.7%

Draw & Under 2.516.3%

Away & Over 2.514.0%

Away & BTTS12.3%

Away & No BTTS11.1%

BTTS & Under 2.510.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.5%

Away & Under 2.59.4%

Draw & Over 2.56.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.573.0%

HT Under 1.562.3%

2nd Half More Goals44.3%

HT Home Win39.9%

HT Draw39.1%

HT Over 1.537.7%

HT/FT Home/Home33.4%

1st Half More Goals31.3%

HT Under 0.527.0%

Equal Goals Each Half24.4%

HT Both Teams Score21.9%

HT Away Win21.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.4%

HT/FT Away/Away13.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Away/Home3.0%

HT/FT Home/Away1.6%

Corners (12)

Home Most Corners85.4%

Home Over 4.5 Corners77.6%

Under 11.5 Corners77.0%

Under 10.5 Corners66.6%

Over 8.5 Corners58.7%

Under 9.5 Corners54.4%

Over 9.5 Corners45.6%

Under 8.5 Corners41.3%

Over 10.5 Corners33.4%

Over 11.5 Corners23.0%

Away Over 4.5 Corners15.8%

Away Most Corners8.1%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards78.5%

Under 5.5 Cards75.9%

Over 3.5 Cards59.8%

Under 4.5 Cards59.6%

Over 4.5 Cards40.4%

Under 3.5 Cards40.2%

Over 5.5 Cards24.1%

Under 2.5 Cards21.5%

Over 0.5 Red Cards16.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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