Russia · Premier League

Fakel vs Lokomotiv

Kick-off 13:15 · Sat, Oct 10

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

48% confidence

Fakel 47.6% Draw 31.4% Lokomotiv 21.0%

Over 2.5 - 36% BTTS - 43%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

79%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 15.6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Lokomotiv: 4 points versus 6 across the last 5 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.63 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

15.6%

Exact-score model probability

Fakel

W L D L L

Form 1-1-3 Goals 4:6 Scored/game 0.8 Conceded/game 1.2

Lokomotiv

D D L D L W

Form 1-3-2 Goals 5:7 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Fakel win47.6%

Draw31.4%

Lokomotiv win21.0%

Over 1.5 goals65.0%

Over 2.5 goals36.4%

Over 3.5 goals17.1%

Both teams to score42.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

91.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

91.3%

Over 0.5 Goals

88.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)77.4%

Home or Away (12)71.8%

Draw No Bet - Home68.5%

Draw or Away (X2)50.8%

Home Win49.2%

Both Halves Over 0.543.0%

Goal in Both Halves43.0%

Draw No Bet - Away31.5%

Draw28.2%

Exactly 1 Goal25.0%

Away Win22.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals97.7%

Under 4.5 Goals93.3%

Over 0.5 Goals88.4%

Under 3.5 Goals82.9%

1-3 Goals71.2%

Under 2.5 Goals63.6%

Over 1.5 Goals63.4%

2-4 Goals56.6%

1-2 Goals51.9%

Total Goals Even50.7%

Total Goals Odd49.3%

2-3 Goals46.2%

Under 1.5 Goals36.6%

Over 2.5 Goals36.4%

3-4 Goals29.7%

Exactly 2 Goals26.9%

Exactly 3 Goals19.3%

Over 3.5 Goals17.1%

4+ Goals17.1%

Under 0.5 Goals11.6%

Exactly 0 Goals11.6%

Over 4.5 Goals6.7%

Over 5.5 Goals2.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score73.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)59.0%

Away Team to Score55.6%

Home Clean Sheet44.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)41.0%

Home Win to Nil32.8%

Away Clean Sheet26.2%

Away Win to Nil14.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.573.8%

Away Over 0.555.6%

Away Exactly 044.4%

Home Over 1.538.8%

Away Exactly 136.0%

Home Exactly 135.1%

Home Exactly 026.2%

Home Exactly 223.5%

Away Over 1.519.5%

Home Over 2.515.2%

Home 3+ Goals15.2%

Away Exactly 214.6%

Away Over 2.54.9%

Away 3+ Goals4.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)91.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away91.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)77.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home77.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)76.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away76.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)50.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away50.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)49.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw25.8%

Home to win by 125.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)23.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home23.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)22.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.6%

Away to win by 115.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.8%

Home to win by 214.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)8.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home8.7%

Home to win by 3+8.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.4%

Away to win by 25.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.7%

Away to win by 3+1.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.550.9%

Home & No BTTS32.8%

BTTS & Over 2.528.4%

Home & Under 2.526.0%

Draw & Under 2.524.3%

Home & Over 2.523.2%

Draw & BTTS16.5%

Home & BTTS16.4%

Away & No BTTS14.5%

Away & Under 2.513.3%

BTTS & Under 2.512.6%

Away & Over 2.59.4%

Away & BTTS8.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.1%

Draw & Over 2.53.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.574.7%

HT Over 0.562.0%

HT Draw46.8%

2nd Half More Goals40.8%

HT Under 0.538.0%

HT Home Win34.7%

1st Half More Goals29.9%

Equal Goals Each Half29.3%

HT/FT Home/Home29.3%

HT Over 1.525.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw19.4%

HT Away Win18.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.0%

HT Both Teams Score13.9%

HT/FT Away/Away12.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Away/Home1.9%

HT/FT Home/Away1.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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