Russia · Premier League

Fakel vs Rodina Moskva

Kick-off 13:00 · Sat, Oct 24

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

61% confidence

Fakel 60.6% Draw 21.3% Rodina Moskva 18.1%

Over 2.5 - 69% BTTS - 65%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

82%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

65%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.5%

Exact-score model probability

Fakel

W L D L L

Form 1-1-3 Goals 4:6 Scored/game 0.8 Conceded/game 1.2

Rodina Moskva

L D W L L

Form 1-1-3 Goals 7:14 Scored/game 1.4 Conceded/game 2.8

📈 Probability Breakdown

Fakel win60.6%

Draw21.3%

Rodina Moskva win18.1%

Over 1.5 goals88.0%

Over 2.5 goals68.8%

Over 3.5 goals47.4%

Both teams to score64.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

90.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

90.2%

Home Team to Score

90.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)80.8%

Home or Away (12)80.8%

Draw No Bet - Home76.3%

Both Halves Over 0.568.4%

Goal in Both Halves68.4%

Home Win61.6%

Draw or Away (X2)38.3%

Draw No Bet - Away23.7%

Draw19.2%

Away Win19.2%

Exactly 1 Goal10.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.1%

Over 1.5 Goals86.9%

Under 5.5 Goals85.2%

Under 4.5 Goals71.7%

Over 2.5 Goals68.8%

2-4 Goals58.5%

Under 3.5 Goals52.7%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

1-3 Goals49.7%

Over 3.5 Goals47.3%

4+ Goals47.3%

3-4 Goals40.4%

2-3 Goals39.5%

Under 2.5 Goals31.2%

Over 4.5 Goals28.3%

1-2 Goals28.3%

Exactly 3 Goals21.4%

Exactly 2 Goals18.1%

Over 5.5 Goals14.8%

Under 1.5 Goals13.1%

Under 0.5 Goals2.9%

Exactly 0 Goals2.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score90.1%

Away Team to Score70.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)63.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)36.2%

Home Clean Sheet29.2%

Home Win to Nil26.3%

Away Clean Sheet9.8%

Away Win to Nil7.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.590.1%

Away Over 0.570.8%

Home Over 1.567.3%

Home Over 2.540.8%

Home 3+ Goals40.8%

Away Exactly 135.9%

Away Over 1.534.9%

Away Exactly 029.2%

Home Exactly 226.5%

Home Exactly 122.8%

Away Exactly 222.1%

Away Over 2.512.7%

Away 3+ Goals12.7%

Home Exactly 09.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)90.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away90.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)80.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home80.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)78.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away78.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)61.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)60.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away60.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)39.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home39.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)38.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away38.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.9%

Home to win by 121.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)21.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home21.4%

Home to win by 3+21.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)19.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.2%

Home to win by 218.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.7%

Away to win by 111.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)9.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home9.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.2%

Away to win by 25.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.4%

Away to win by 3+2.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.555.6%

Home & Over 2.547.2%

Home & BTTS35.3%

Home & No BTTS26.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.523.0%

Draw & BTTS16.3%

Home & Under 2.514.4%

Away & Over 2.513.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.2%

Away & BTTS12.2%

Draw & Under 2.511.1%

BTTS & Under 2.58.2%

Draw & Over 2.58.1%

Away & No BTTS7.0%

Away & Under 2.55.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.579.8%

HT Under 1.552.6%

HT Over 1.547.4%

HT Home Win46.9%

2nd Half More Goals46.3%

HT/FT Home/Home40.7%

HT Draw33.7%

1st Half More Goals31.9%

HT Both Teams Score27.6%

Equal Goals Each Half21.8%

HT Under 0.520.2%

HT Away Win19.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.2%

HT/FT Away/Away10.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Away/Home3.8%

HT/FT Home/Away1.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions