Scotland · Premiership

Falkirk vs Kilmarnock

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Oct 24

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

51% confidence

Falkirk 51.3% Draw 22.4% Kilmarnock 26.3%

Over 2.5 - 61% BTTS - 92%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

83%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

78%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-3 at 5.4%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Kilmarnock: 1 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.4%

Exact-score model probability

Falkirk

L D L L L L

Form 0-1-5 Goals 4:15 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 2.5

Kilmarnock

L L L W W W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 14:12 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 2

Head to head · last 3

Falkirk 3wins ·0 draws ·Kilmarnock 0wins

Falkirk 5-1 KilmarnockFeb 28, 2026

Falkirk 1-0 KilmarnockDec 20, 2025

Falkirk 3-1 KilmarnockNov 1, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Falkirk win51.3%

Draw22.4%

Kilmarnock win26.3%

Over 1.5 goals82.5%

Over 2.5 goals61.4%

Over 3.5 goals39.1%

Both teams to score92.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

90.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home

90.0%

Both Halves Over 0.5

89.5%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.589.5%

Goal in Both Halves89.5%

Home or Away (12)82.7%

Draw or Away (X2)63.9%

Draw No Bet - Away57.3%

Home or Draw (1X)51.9%

Away Win47.3%

Draw No Bet - Home42.7%

Home Win35.3%

Draw16.6%

Exactly 1 Goal1.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.0%

Over 1.5 Goals97.4%

Over 2.5 Goals92.7%

Over 3.5 Goals83.5%

4+ Goals83.5%

Over 4.5 Goals69.8%

Over 5.5 Goals53.6%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Under 5.5 Goals46.4%

Under 4.5 Goals30.2%

2-4 Goals27.6%

3-4 Goals22.9%

Under 3.5 Goals16.5%

1-3 Goals15.5%

2-3 Goals13.9%

Exactly 3 Goals9.2%

Under 2.5 Goals7.3%

1-2 Goals6.2%

Exactly 2 Goals4.7%

Under 1.5 Goals2.6%

Under 0.5 Goals1.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score95.0%

Home Team to Score93.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)89.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)10.9%

Away Clean Sheet6.2%

Away Win to Nil5.9%

Home Clean Sheet4.2%

Home Win to Nil4.0%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.595.0%

Home Over 0.593.0%

Away Over 1.581.6%

Home Over 1.575.8%

Away Over 2.560.5%

Away 3+ Goals60.5%

Home Over 2.551.9%

Home 3+ Goals51.9%

Home Exactly 223.9%

Away Exactly 221.1%

Home Exactly 117.2%

Away Exactly 113.4%

Home Exactly 06.2%

Away Exactly 04.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.6%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)90.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home90.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)88.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away88.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)81.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home81.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)78.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away78.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)68.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home68.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)63.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away63.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)51.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home51.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)47.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)35.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)31.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away31.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)21.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home21.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)18.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away18.2%

Away to win by 3+18.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.1%

Away to win by 116.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.2%

Home to win by 114.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw13.1%

Away to win by 213.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)11.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home11.1%

Home to win by 3+11.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw10.1%

Home to win by 210.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)9.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away9.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw8.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw5.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away4.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.7%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.586.7%

Away & Over 2.545.2%

Away & BTTS41.4%

Home & Over 2.533.6%

Home & BTTS31.4%

Draw & BTTS16.3%

Draw & Over 2.514.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.56.0%

Away & No BTTS5.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.2%

Home & No BTTS4.0%

Draw & Under 2.52.6%

BTTS & Under 2.52.3%

Away & Under 2.52.2%

Home & Under 2.51.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.1%

HT Over 1.574.6%

HT Both Teams Score54.1%

2nd Half More Goals51.3%

HT Away Win41.1%

HT Home Win33.1%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT/FT Away/Away31.4%

HT Draw25.9%

HT Under 1.525.4%

HT/FT Home/Home22.4%

Equal Goals Each Half16.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away11.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home8.8%

HT Under 0.56.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Away5.3%

HT/FT Away/Home4.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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