Scotland · Premiership

Falkirk vs ST Mirren

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Aug 1

📊 Our Prediction

Away Win

22% confidence

Falkirk 51.6% Draw 26.0% ST Mirren 22.4%

Over 2.5 - 46% BTTS - 81%

🎯 Best Pick

Away Win

Strong form

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 27%

⚠️ AIs disagree

64%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

High scoring

82%

Both Teams Score (GG)

BTTS trend

80%

🤖 AI Match Analysis

Falkirk's poor form and ST Mirren's stronger pi-rating indicate an away win is likely. With both teams scoring in 80% of Falkirk's last matches, goals are expected. ST Mirren's recent performances also suggest they can capitalize on Falkirk's defensive weaknesses. Key players like Ayunga for ST Mirren could make a difference.

💡

Top Tip

Backing the away team to win is the strongest pick given the current form and statistics

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

Both Teams to Score is rated at 81.1% by the model, supported by each side's recent scoring profile.

Strong form

Recent form leans to ST Mirren: 3 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Falkirk 1 wins, 0 draws, ST Mirren 2 wins in the last 3 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away Win

BTTS probability

81.1%

Both teams to score

Falkirk BTTS

66.7%

Across recent matches

ST Mirren BTTS

33.3%

Across recent matches

Bookmaker implied chance

27%

Market does not fully agree

Falkirk

L L L W L L

Form 1-0-5 Goals 8:20 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 3.33

ST Mirren

W D D W L L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 5:6 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 3

Falkirk 1wins ·0 draws ·ST Mirren 2wins

Falkirk 1-2 ST MirrenMar 21, 2026

Falkirk 2-0 ST MirrenJan 10, 2026

Falkirk 1-2 ST MirrenSep 13, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Falkirk win51.6%

Draw26.0%

ST Mirren win22.4%

Over 1.5 goals72.3%

Over 2.5 goals46.4%

Over 3.5 goals24.9%

Both teams to score81.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

90.5%

Away Team to Score

88.6%

Away Over 0.5

88.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)79.5%

Both Halves Over 0.573.8%

Goal in Both Halves73.8%

Draw or Away (X2)67.9%

Draw No Bet - Away59.6%

Home or Draw (1X)52.5%

Away Win47.4%

Draw No Bet - Home40.4%

Home Win32.1%

Draw20.5%

Exactly 1 Goal7.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.0%

Over 1.5 Goals90.5%

Under 5.5 Goals79.2%

Over 2.5 Goals75.6%

Under 4.5 Goals63.7%

Over 3.5 Goals55.9%

4+ Goals55.9%

2-4 Goals54.2%

Total Goals Odd50.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Under 3.5 Goals44.1%

1-3 Goals42.2%

3-4 Goals39.3%

Over 4.5 Goals36.3%

2-3 Goals34.7%

Under 2.5 Goals24.4%

1-2 Goals22.5%

Over 5.5 Goals20.8%

Exactly 3 Goals19.7%

Exactly 2 Goals14.9%

Under 1.5 Goals9.5%

Under 0.5 Goals2.0%

Exactly 0 Goals1.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score88.6%

Home Team to Score83.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)73.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)26.3%

Away Clean Sheet16.8%

Away Win to Nil14.9%

Home Clean Sheet11.3%

Home Win to Nil9.4%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.588.6%

Home Over 0.583.1%

Away Over 1.564.0%

Home Over 1.553.1%

Away Over 2.537.1%

Away 3+ Goals37.1%

Home Exactly 130.0%

Away Exactly 226.9%

Home Exactly 226.7%

Home Over 2.526.4%

Home 3+ Goals26.4%

Away Exactly 124.6%

Home Exactly 016.8%

Away Exactly 011.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)94.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home94.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)93.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away93.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)86.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home86.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)83.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away83.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)72.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home72.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)67.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away67.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)52.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home52.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)47.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)32.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)27.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away27.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.5%

Away to win by 119.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)16.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home16.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.9%

Home to win by 115.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw14.1%

Away to win by 214.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)13.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away13.8%

Away to win by 3+13.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw9.4%

Home to win by 29.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw8.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)6.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home6.8%

Home to win by 3+6.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)5.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away5.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw4.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away2.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.566.3%

Away & Over 2.538.7%

Away & BTTS32.5%

Home & Over 2.525.7%

Home & BTTS22.7%

Draw & BTTS18.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.517.0%

Away & No BTTS14.9%

Draw & Over 2.511.2%

Home & No BTTS9.4%

Draw & Under 2.59.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.2%

Away & Under 2.58.7%

BTTS & Under 2.57.4%

Home & Under 2.56.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.583.2%

HT Over 1.553.2%

2nd Half More Goals47.4%

HT Under 1.546.8%

HT Away Win38.5%

HT Both Teams Score34.5%

HT Draw32.9%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT/FT Away/Away30.1%

HT Home Win28.7%

Equal Goals Each Half20.5%

HT/FT Home/Home19.3%

HT Under 0.516.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away13.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home9.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Away3.9%

HT/FT Away/Home3.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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