Portugal · Primeira Liga

Famalicao vs Alverca

Kick-off 20:15 · Mon, Oct 12

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

56% confidence

Famalicao 55.8% Draw 25.5% Alverca 18.7%

Over 2.5 - 38% BTTS - 50%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

86%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

81%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 16.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Alverca: 6 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

16.8%

Exact-score model probability

Famalicao

W D D D L L

Form 1-3-2 Goals 8:6 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1

Alverca

W W L D L D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 9:9 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 2

Famalicao 1wins ·0 draws ·Alverca 1wins

Famalicao 1-0 AlvercaMay 16, 2026

Famalicao 0-1 AlvercaJan 4, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Famalicao win55.8%

Draw25.5%

Alverca win18.7%

Over 1.5 goals64.5%

Over 2.5 goals38.1%

Over 3.5 goals18.4%

Both teams to score49.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

89.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

89.9%

Over 0.5 Goals

87.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)80.7%

Draw No Bet - Home73.3%

Home or Away (12)72.4%

Home Win53.1%

Draw or Away (X2)46.9%

Both Halves Over 0.542.2%

Goal in Both Halves42.2%

Draw27.6%

Draw No Bet - Away26.7%

Exactly 1 Goal25.5%

Away Win19.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals97.9%

Under 4.5 Goals93.6%

Over 0.5 Goals87.9%

Under 3.5 Goals83.6%

1-3 Goals71.5%

Under 2.5 Goals64.5%

Over 1.5 Goals62.4%

2-4 Goals56.1%

1-2 Goals52.5%

Total Goals Even50.7%

Total Goals Odd49.3%

2-3 Goals46.0%

Under 1.5 Goals37.6%

Over 2.5 Goals35.5%

3-4 Goals29.1%

Exactly 2 Goals27.0%

Exactly 3 Goals19.0%

Over 3.5 Goals16.4%

4+ Goals16.4%

Under 0.5 Goals12.1%

Exactly 0 Goals12.1%

Over 4.5 Goals6.4%

Over 5.5 Goals2.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score75.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)61.4%

Away Team to Score51.4%

Home Clean Sheet48.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)38.6%

Home Win to Nil36.6%

Away Clean Sheet24.8%

Away Win to Nil12.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.575.2%

Away Over 0.551.4%

Away Exactly 048.6%

Home Over 1.540.6%

Away Exactly 135.1%

Home Exactly 134.6%

Home Exactly 024.8%

Home Exactly 224.1%

Home Over 2.516.5%

Home 3+ Goals16.5%

Away Over 1.516.3%

Away Exactly 212.6%

Away Over 2.53.7%

Away 3+ Goals3.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)89.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away89.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)80.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home80.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)73.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away73.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)53.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)46.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away46.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw26.8%

Home to win by 126.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)26.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home26.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)19.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.2%

Home to win by 216.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.9%

Away to win by 113.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)10.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home10.1%

Home to win by 3+10.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.3%

Away to win by 24.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.2%

Away to win by 3+1.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.552.4%

Home & No BTTS36.6%

Home & Under 2.528.5%

BTTS & Over 2.526.5%

Home & Over 2.524.5%

Draw & Under 2.524.2%

Home & BTTS16.5%

Draw & BTTS15.5%

Away & No BTTS12.7%

BTTS & Under 2.512.1%

Away & Under 2.511.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.9%

Away & Over 2.57.5%

Away & BTTS6.6%

Draw & Over 2.53.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.575.3%

HT Over 0.561.4%

HT Draw46.9%

2nd Half More Goals40.6%

HT Under 0.538.6%

HT Home Win36.9%

HT/FT Home/Home31.9%

1st Half More Goals29.8%

Equal Goals Each Half29.6%

HT Over 1.524.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw19.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home19.2%

HT Away Win16.3%

HT Both Teams Score12.9%

HT/FT Away/Away10.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Away/Home1.9%

HT/FT Home/Away0.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions