Portugal · Primeira Liga

Famalicao vs Arouca

Kick-off 21:45 · Fri, Nov 6

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

49% confidence

Famalicao 48.9% Draw 24.9% Arouca 26.2%

Over 2.5 - 44% BTTS - 47%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-1 at 13.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Arouca: 8 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

13.4%

Exact-score model probability

Famalicao

L W L W D D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 12:10 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.67

Arouca

W W W D L D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 6:4 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 0.67

Head to head · last 5

Famalicao 2wins ·2 draws ·Arouca 1wins

Famalicao 1-0 AroucaMar 6, 2026

Famalicao 1-1 AroucaOct 5, 2025

Famalicao 2-1 AroucaApr 5, 2025

Famalicao 0-0 AroucaNov 9, 2024

Famalicao 2-3 AroucaFeb 23, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Famalicao win48.9%

Draw24.9%

Arouca win26.2%

Over 1.5 goals68.9%

Over 2.5 goals43.7%

Over 3.5 goals22.6%

Both teams to score47.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 4.5 Goals

91.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

90.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

90.1%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)72.4%

Home or Away (12)72.0%

Draw No Bet - Away61.6%

Home or Draw (1X)55.6%

Both Halves Over 0.545.9%

Goal in Both Halves45.9%

Away Win44.4%

Draw No Bet - Home38.4%

Draw28.0%

Home Win27.6%

Exactly 1 Goal23.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals97.1%

Under 4.5 Goals91.8%

Over 0.5 Goals89.8%

Under 3.5 Goals80.3%

1-3 Goals70.1%

Over 1.5 Goals66.5%

Under 2.5 Goals60.1%

2-4 Goals58.3%

Total Goals Even50.5%

1-2 Goals49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

2-3 Goals46.8%

Over 2.5 Goals39.9%

Under 1.5 Goals33.5%

3-4 Goals31.8%

Exactly 2 Goals26.6%

Exactly 3 Goals20.2%

Over 3.5 Goals19.7%

4+ Goals19.7%

Under 0.5 Goals10.2%

Exactly 0 Goals10.2%

Over 4.5 Goals8.2%

Over 5.5 Goals2.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score73.0%

Home Team to Score62.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)54.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)45.4%

Away Clean Sheet37.9%

Away Win to Nil27.7%

Home Clean Sheet27.0%

Home Win to Nil16.7%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.573.0%

Home Over 0.562.1%

Home Exactly 037.9%

Away Over 1.537.7%

Home Exactly 136.8%

Away Exactly 135.3%

Away Exactly 027.0%

Home Over 1.525.4%

Away Exactly 223.2%

Home Exactly 217.9%

Away Over 2.514.5%

Away 3+ Goals14.5%

Home Over 2.57.5%

Home 3+ Goals7.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)92.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home92.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)90.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away90.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)79.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home79.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)72.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away72.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)55.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home55.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)44.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)27.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw23.9%

Away to win by 123.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)20.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away20.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.7%

Home to win by 117.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw13.1%

Away to win by 213.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)9.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home9.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)7.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away7.3%

Away to win by 3+7.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw7.2%

Home to win by 27.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.7%

Home to win by 3+2.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.547.1%

BTTS & Over 2.532.4%

Away & No BTTS27.7%

Draw & Under 2.523.2%

Away & Over 2.522.2%

Away & Under 2.522.2%

Draw & BTTS17.8%

Home & No BTTS16.7%

Away & BTTS16.7%

Home & Under 2.514.7%

BTTS & Under 2.513.0%

Home & Over 2.512.9%

Home & BTTS10.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.5%

Draw & Over 2.54.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.572.6%

HT Over 0.564.2%

HT Draw45.7%

2nd Half More Goals41.5%

HT Under 0.535.8%

HT Away Win32.3%

1st Half More Goals30.2%

Equal Goals Each Half28.3%

HT Over 1.527.4%

HT/FT Away/Away26.2%

HT Home Win22.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw18.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away16.2%

HT Both Teams Score15.8%

HT/FT Home/Home15.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home10.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Away2.0%

HT/FT Away/Home1.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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