Portugal · Primeira Liga

Famalicao vs Maritimo

Kick-off 20:30 · Sun, Aug 16

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

52% confidence

Famalicao 51.6% Draw 28.9% Maritimo 19.5%

Over 2.5 - 30% BTTS - 65%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ AIs disagree

66%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 10.8%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Famalicao: 10 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Famalicao 2 wins, 2 draws, Maritimo 0 wins in the last 4 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.8%

Exact-score model probability

Famalicao

D W D D W D

Form 2-4-0 Goals 7:5 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 0.83

Maritimo

W W L L W L

Form 3-0-3 Goals 7:8 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 4

Famalicao 2wins ·2 draws ·Maritimo 0wins

Famalicao 3-2 MaritimoApr 22, 2023

Famalicao 0-0 MaritimoNov 6, 2022

Famalicao 1-0 MaritimoFeb 20, 2022

Famalicao 0-0 MaritimoSep 18, 2021

📈 Probability Breakdown

Famalicao win51.6%

Draw28.9%

Maritimo win19.5%

Over 1.5 goals56.2%

Over 2.5 goals29.6%

Over 3.5 goals12.5%

Both teams to score64.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

90.6%

Home Over 0.5

90.6%

Under 5.5 Goals

88.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)87.5%

Draw No Bet - Home85.0%

Home or Away (12)82.6%

Home Win70.2%

Both Halves Over 0.564.2%

Goal in Both Halves64.2%

Draw or Away (X2)29.7%

Draw17.3%

Draw No Bet - Away15.0%

Exactly 1 Goal12.5%

Away Win12.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.1%

Under 5.5 Goals88.8%

Over 1.5 Goals83.6%

Under 4.5 Goals77.0%

Over 2.5 Goals63.3%

2-4 Goals60.6%

Under 3.5 Goals58.9%

1-3 Goals55.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals42.5%

Over 3.5 Goals41.1%

4+ Goals41.1%

3-4 Goals40.2%

Under 2.5 Goals36.7%

1-2 Goals32.8%

Over 4.5 Goals23.0%

Exactly 3 Goals22.2%

Exactly 2 Goals20.4%

Under 1.5 Goals16.4%

Over 5.5 Goals11.2%

Under 0.5 Goals3.9%

Exactly 0 Goals3.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score90.6%

Away Team to Score59.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)53.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)46.5%

Home Clean Sheet41.0%

Home Win to Nil37.1%

Away Clean Sheet9.3%

Away Win to Nil5.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.590.6%

Home Over 1.568.5%

Away Over 0.559.0%

Home Over 2.542.2%

Home 3+ Goals42.2%

Away Exactly 041.0%

Away Exactly 136.5%

Home Exactly 226.2%

Away Over 1.522.4%

Home Exactly 122.1%

Away Exactly 216.3%

Home Exactly 09.3%

Away Over 2.56.1%

Away 3+ Goals6.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)94.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away94.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)87.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home87.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)87.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away87.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)73.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away73.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)70.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)52.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away52.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)47.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home47.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)29.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away29.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)26.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home26.8%

Home to win by 3+26.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.7%

Home to win by 122.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw20.7%

Home to win by 220.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)12.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home12.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)12.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw8.5%

Away to win by 18.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw7.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home5.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.9%

Away to win by 22.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.9%

Away to win by 3+0.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.550.4%

BTTS & Over 2.545.4%

Home & No BTTS37.1%

Home & BTTS33.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.528.6%

Home & Under 2.519.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.517.9%

Draw & BTTS13.5%

Draw & Under 2.511.9%

BTTS & Under 2.58.1%

Away & Over 2.57.5%

Away & BTTS6.9%

Away & No BTTS5.5%

Draw & Over 2.55.4%

Away & Under 2.54.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.577.0%

HT Under 1.556.8%

HT Home Win52.2%

HT/FT Home/Home47.5%

2nd Half More Goals45.5%

HT Over 1.543.2%

HT Draw34.0%

1st Half More Goals31.7%

HT Under 0.523.0%

Equal Goals Each Half22.9%

HT Both Teams Score21.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home19.4%

HT Away Win13.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.9%

HT/FT Away/Away6.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Away/Home3.4%

HT/FT Home/Away0.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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