Germany · Bundesliga

FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen

Kick-off 14:30 · Sat, Sep 12

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

49% confidence

FC Augsburg 26.3% Draw 24.7% Bayer Leverkusen 49.1%

Over 2.5 - 99% BTTS - 96%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

82%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-2 at 5.2%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to FC Augsburg: 13 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.66 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.2%

Exact-score model probability

FC Augsburg

W W L W W D

Form 4-1-1 Goals 14:8 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1.33

Bayer Leverkusen

W L D L W W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 14:9 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

FC Augsburg 2wins ·0 draws ·Bayer Leverkusen 3wins

FC Augsburg 2-1 Bayer LeverkusenApr 18, 2026

FC Augsburg 2-0 Bayer LeverkusenDec 6, 2025

FC Augsburg 0-2 Bayer LeverkusenApr 26, 2025

FC Augsburg 0-2 Bayer LeverkusenDec 14, 2024

FC Augsburg 1-2 Bayer LeverkusenMay 18, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

FC Augsburg win26.3%

Draw24.7%

Bayer Leverkusen win49.1%

Over 1.5 goals81.7%

Over 2.5 goals98.7%

Over 3.5 goals36.7%

Both teams to score96.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Both Halves Over 0.5

90.1%

Goal in Both Halves

90.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

89.8%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.590.1%

Goal in Both Halves90.1%

Home or Away (12)82.7%

Home or Draw (1X)63.7%

Draw No Bet - Home57.1%

Draw or Away (X2)51.9%

Home Win47.2%

Draw No Bet - Away42.9%

Away Win35.5%

Draw16.4%

Exactly 1 Goal1.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.9%

Over 1.5 Goals97.5%

Over 2.5 Goals93.2%

Over 3.5 Goals84.5%

4+ Goals84.5%

Over 4.5 Goals71.3%

Over 5.5 Goals55.4%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Under 5.5 Goals44.6%

Under 4.5 Goals28.7%

2-4 Goals26.2%

3-4 Goals21.8%

Under 3.5 Goals15.5%

1-3 Goals14.4%

2-3 Goals13.0%

Exactly 3 Goals8.7%

Under 2.5 Goals6.8%

1-2 Goals5.7%

Exactly 2 Goals4.3%

Under 1.5 Goals2.5%

Under 0.5 Goals1.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.2%

Away Team to Score93.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)89.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)10.5%

Home Clean Sheet5.8%

Home Win to Nil5.6%

Away Clean Sheet4.0%

Away Win to Nil3.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.2%

Away Over 0.593.3%

Home Over 1.582.3%

Away Over 1.576.8%

Home Over 2.561.6%

Home 3+ Goals61.6%

Away Over 2.553.3%

Away 3+ Goals53.3%

Away Exactly 223.5%

Home Exactly 220.7%

Away Exactly 116.5%

Home Exactly 112.9%

Away Exactly 05.8%

Home Exactly 04.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)93.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home93.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)89.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away89.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)87.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home87.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)80.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away80.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)77.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home77.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)67.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away67.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)63.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home63.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)51.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away51.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)47.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)35.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)31.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home31.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)21.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away21.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)18.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home18.3%

Home to win by 3+18.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.0%

Home to win by 116.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.1%

Away to win by 114.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.0%

Home to win by 213.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)11.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away11.3%

Away to win by 3+11.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw10.1%

Away to win by 210.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)9.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home9.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away5.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away2.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.7%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.587.4%

Home & Over 2.545.3%

Home & BTTS41.6%

Away & Over 2.533.9%

Away & BTTS31.7%

Draw & BTTS16.2%

Draw & Over 2.514.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.55.8%

Home & No BTTS5.6%

Away & No BTTS3.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.53.8%

Draw & Under 2.52.4%

BTTS & Under 2.52.1%

Home & Under 2.52.0%

Away & Under 2.51.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.4%

HT Over 1.575.6%

HT Both Teams Score55.1%

2nd Half More Goals51.4%

HT Home Win41.1%

HT Away Win33.3%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT/FT Home/Home31.4%

HT Draw25.6%

HT Under 1.524.4%

HT/FT Away/Away22.6%

Equal Goals Each Half16.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.7%

HT Under 0.56.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.8%

HT/FT Away/Home5.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Away4.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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