Germany · Bundesliga

FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin

Full time · 1:1

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

57% confidence

FC Augsburg 56.5% Draw 23.6% Union Berlin 19.9%

Over 2.5 - 95% BTTS - 84%

✓ Pick was correct (1:1)

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

84%

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

80%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 6.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to FC Augsburg: 8 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.9%

Exact-score model probability

FC Augsburg

L D L D W W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 16:12 Scored/game 2.67 Conceded/game 2

Union Berlin

D W L L L D

Form 1-2-3 Goals 5:17 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 2.83

Head to head · last 5

FC Augsburg 2wins ·1 draws ·Union Berlin 2wins

FC Augsburg 0-4 Union BerlinMay 16, 2026

FC Augsburg 1-1 Union BerlinJan 15, 2026

FC Augsburg 1-2 Union BerlinMay 17, 2025

FC Augsburg 2-0 Union BerlinJan 15, 2025

FC Augsburg 2-0 Union BerlinApr 12, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

FC Augsburg win56.5%

Draw23.6%

Union Berlin win19.9%

Over 1.5 goals78.7%

Over 2.5 goals95.0%

Over 3.5 goals32.5%

Both teams to score83.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

89.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

89.9%

HT Over 0.5

89.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)85.0%

Both Halves Over 0.583.8%

Goal in Both Halves83.8%

Home or Draw (1X)83.1%

Draw No Bet - Home81.0%

Home Win68.9%

Draw or Away (X2)30.4%

Draw No Bet - Away19.0%

Away Win16.1%

Draw14.3%

Exactly 1 Goal3.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.6%

Over 1.5 Goals95.2%

Over 2.5 Goals86.9%

Over 3.5 Goals72.9%

4+ Goals72.9%

Under 5.5 Goals62.2%

Over 4.5 Goals55.4%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Under 4.5 Goals44.6%

2-4 Goals39.9%

Over 5.5 Goals37.8%

3-4 Goals31.5%

Under 3.5 Goals27.1%

1-3 Goals25.7%

2-3 Goals22.4%

Exactly 3 Goals14.0%

Under 2.5 Goals13.1%

1-2 Goals11.7%

Exactly 2 Goals8.4%

Under 1.5 Goals4.8%

Under 0.5 Goals1.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.7%

Away Team to Score80.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)77.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)22.2%

Home Clean Sheet18.6%

Home Win to Nil17.9%

Away Clean Sheet3.6%

Away Win to Nil2.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.7%

Home Over 1.583.8%

Away Over 0.580.7%

Home Over 2.564.0%

Home 3+ Goals64.0%

Away Over 1.549.6%

Away Exactly 131.1%

Away Exactly 226.1%

Away Over 2.523.5%

Away 3+ Goals23.5%

Home Exactly 219.8%

Away Exactly 018.6%

Home Exactly 111.9%

Home Exactly 03.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)95.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)89.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away89.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)83.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home83.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)80.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away80.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)68.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)65.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away65.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)51.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home51.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)48.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away48.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)33.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home33.3%

Home to win by 3+33.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)30.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away30.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)19.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home19.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.8%

Home to win by 117.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.7%

Home to win by 217.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)16.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw9.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)9.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home9.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw9.0%

Away to win by 19.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw5.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.5%

Away to win by 24.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.7%

Away to win by 3+2.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.574.1%

Home & Over 2.562.9%

Home & BTTS51.0%

Home & No BTTS17.9%

Away & Over 2.514.1%

Draw & BTTS13.6%

Away & BTTS13.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.8%

Draw & Over 2.59.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.58.7%

Home & Under 2.55.9%

Draw & Under 2.54.4%

BTTS & Under 2.53.7%

Away & No BTTS2.9%

Away & Under 2.52.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.589.5%

HT Over 1.565.8%

HT Home Win55.0%

2nd Half More Goals49.7%

HT/FT Home/Home48.9%

HT Both Teams Score41.1%

HT Under 1.534.2%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw26.2%

HT Away Win18.8%

Equal Goals Each Half17.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.4%

HT Under 0.510.5%

HT/FT Away/Away9.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.9%

HT/FT Away/Home5.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Home/Away1.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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