Russia · Premier League

FC Krasnodar vs Fakel

Kick-off 16:15 · Sun, Aug 2

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

93% confidence

FC Krasnodar 92.9% Draw 5.2% Fakel 1.9%

Over 2.5 - 89% BTTS - 52%

🎯 Best Pick

Home Win

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 71%

⚠️ AIs disagree

67%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-0 at 9%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

71%

Market does not fully agree

FC Krasnodar

W W L W

Form 3-0-1 Goals 8:3 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 0.75

Fakel

Form 0-0-1 Goals 1:2 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2

📈 Probability Breakdown

FC Krasnodar win92.9%

Draw5.2%

Fakel win1.9%

Over 1.5 goals96.8%

Over 2.5 goals89.0%

Over 3.5 goals75.9%

Both teams to score52.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Away (12)

91.5%

HT Over 0.5

90.6%

Home Over 1.5

89.9%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home97.8%

Home or Draw (1X)93.9%

Home or Away (12)91.5%

Home Win89.4%

Both Halves Over 0.585.5%

Goal in Both Halves85.5%

Draw or Away (X2)6.5%

Draw4.5%

Exactly 1 Goal2.8%

Draw No Bet - Away2.2%

Away Win2.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.4%

Over 1.5 Goals92.7%

Over 2.5 Goals85.5%

Over 3.5 Goals72.8%

4+ Goals72.8%

Under 5.5 Goals61.2%

Over 4.5 Goals56.2%

Total Goals Even48.2%

Total Goals Odd47.8%

Under 4.5 Goals43.8%

Over 5.5 Goals38.8%

2-4 Goals36.5%

3-4 Goals29.3%

Under 3.5 Goals27.2%

1-3 Goals22.6%

2-3 Goals19.9%

Under 2.5 Goals14.5%

Exactly 3 Goals12.7%

1-2 Goals10.0%

Under 1.5 Goals7.3%

Exactly 2 Goals7.2%

Under 0.5 Goals4.6%

Exactly 0 Goals0.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

Away Team to Score50.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)50.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)49.9%

Home Clean Sheet45.3%

Home Win to Nil44.8%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 0.550.6%

Away Exactly 045.3%

Away Exactly 134.0%

Away Over 1.516.6%

Away Exactly 212.8%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Away Over 2.53.9%

Away 3+ Goals3.9%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)93.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home93.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)89.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)80.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home80.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)78.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)65.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home65.6%

Home to win by 3+65.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)64.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away64.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)48.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home48.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)47.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away47.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)31.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home31.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)30.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away30.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)17.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home17.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw17.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)15.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away15.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.5%

Home to win by 214.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw13.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw9.3%

Home to win by 19.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)6.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away6.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw1.6%

Away to win by 11.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.4%

Away to win by 20.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.1%

Away to win by 3+0.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.581.8%

BTTS & Over 2.548.3%

Home & No BTTS44.8%

Home & BTTS44.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.537.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.58.7%

Home & Under 2.57.7%

Draw & BTTS4.0%

Draw & Under 2.52.3%

Draw & Over 2.52.2%

BTTS & Under 2.51.8%

Away & Over 2.51.5%

Away & BTTS1.5%

Away & No BTTS0.6%

Away & Under 2.50.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.6%

HT Home Win77.8%

HT/FT Home/Home76.3%

HT Over 1.568.3%

2nd Half More Goals50.0%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.531.7%

HT Both Teams Score24.9%

Equal Goals Each Half17.5%

HT Draw17.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.1%

HT Under 0.59.4%

HT Away Win5.1%

HT/FT Away/Home2.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw2.2%

HT/FT Away/Away1.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away0.8%

HT/FT Home/Away0.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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