UEFA Europa Conference League

FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris

Kick-off 21:00 · Thu, Nov 5

📊 Our Prediction

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

96% confidence

FC Lugano 95.8% Draw 3.5% Kauno Žalgiris 0.7%

Over 2.5 - 86% BTTS - 35%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

86%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

No Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

65%

Home Clean Sheet

Poisson P(away scores 0)

65%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-0 at 12.3%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to FC Lugano: 13 points versus 7 across the last 5 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.90 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +2.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12.3%

Exact-score model probability

FC Lugano

W D W W W

Form 4-1-0 Goals 12:4 Scored/game 2.4 Conceded/game 0.8

Kauno Žalgiris

W L L L W D

Form 2-1-3 Goals 3:10 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

FC Lugano win95.8%

Draw3.5%

Kauno Žalgiris win0.7%

Over 1.5 goals95.7%

Over 2.5 goals86.4%

Over 3.5 goals71.3%

Both teams to score34.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.7%

Home Over 1.5

89.9%

HT Over 0.5

89.1%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home99.1%

Home or Draw (1X)95.1%

Home or Away (12)93.0%

Home Win92.1%

Both Halves Over 0.583.2%

Goal in Both Halves83.2%

Draw or Away (X2)3.8%

Exactly 1 Goal3.6%

Draw3.0%

Away Win0.9%

Draw No Bet - Away0.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.3%

Over 1.5 Goals91.7%

Over 2.5 Goals82.9%

Over 3.5 Goals68.5%

4+ Goals68.5%

Under 5.5 Goals66.8%

Over 4.5 Goals50.7%

Under 4.5 Goals49.3%

Total Goals Even48.3%

Total Goals Odd47.6%

2-4 Goals41.0%

Over 5.5 Goals33.2%

3-4 Goals32.2%

Under 3.5 Goals31.5%

1-3 Goals26.8%

2-3 Goals23.2%

Under 2.5 Goals17.1%

Exactly 3 Goals14.4%

1-2 Goals12.3%

Exactly 2 Goals8.8%

Under 1.5 Goals8.3%

Under 0.5 Goals4.7%

Exactly 0 Goals0.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)66.8%

Home Clean Sheet62.4%

Home Win to Nil61.7%

Away Team to Score33.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)33.2%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Exactly 062.4%

Away Over 0.533.5%

Away Exactly 126.8%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Away Over 1.56.7%

Away Exactly 25.8%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Away Over 2.50.9%

Away 3+ Goals0.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home95.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)92.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)84.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home84.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)75.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)71.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home71.2%

Home to win by 3+71.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)60.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away60.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)53.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home53.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)42.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away42.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)35.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home35.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)24.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away24.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)20.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home20.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw18.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw15.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.3%

Home to win by 213.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)11.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away11.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw7.6%

Home to win by 17.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away3.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw0.7%

Away to win by 10.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.1%

Away to win by 20.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Away to win by 3+0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.581.6%

Home & No BTTS61.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.551.2%

BTTS & Over 2.531.8%

Home & BTTS30.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.511.7%

Home & Under 2.510.6%

Draw & BTTS2.2%

Draw & Under 2.52.1%

BTTS & Under 2.51.4%

Draw & Over 2.50.8%

Away & Over 2.50.5%

Away & BTTS0.5%

Away & Under 2.50.4%

Away & No BTTS0.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.589.1%

HT Home Win81.6%

HT/FT Home/Home80.8%

HT Over 1.565.0%

2nd Half More Goals49.4%

HT Under 1.535.0%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

Equal Goals Each Half18.1%

HT Draw15.6%

HT Both Teams Score15.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.5%

HT Under 0.510.9%

HT Away Win2.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw1.7%

HT/FT Away/Home1.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw0.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw0.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away0.4%

HT/FT Away/Away0.4%

HT/FT Home/Away0.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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