UEFA Europa Conference League

FC Lugano vs Maccabi Tel Aviv

Kick-off 19:30 · Thu, Aug 20

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

62% confidence

FC Lugano 61.5% Draw 18.2% Maccabi Tel Aviv 20.3%

Over 2.5 - 83% BTTS - 78%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ AIs disagree

71%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 7.3%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to FC Lugano: 10 points versus 9 across the last 4 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.75 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.3%

Exact-score model probability

FC Lugano

D W W W

Form 3-1-0 Goals 10:3 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 0.75

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W L W W

Form 3-0-1 Goals 9:4 Scored/game 2.25 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

FC Lugano win61.5%

Draw18.2%

Maccabi Tel Aviv win20.3%

Over 1.5 goals94.8%

Over 2.5 goals83.3%

Over 3.5 goals66.7%

Both teams to score77.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

90.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

90.1%

Under 5.5 Cards

87.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)82.9%

Both Halves Over 0.580.1%

Goal in Both Halves80.1%

Home or Draw (1X)78.8%

Draw No Bet - Home74.8%

Home Win62.0%

Draw or Away (X2)37.7%

Draw No Bet - Away25.2%

Away Win20.9%

Draw16.8%

Exactly 1 Goal4.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.7%

Over 1.5 Goals93.9%

Over 2.5 Goals83.0%

Under 5.5 Goals69.5%

Over 3.5 Goals66.5%

4+ Goals66.5%

Under 4.5 Goals52.3%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Over 4.5 Goals47.7%

2-4 Goals46.2%

3-4 Goals35.4%

Under 3.5 Goals33.5%

1-3 Goals32.1%

Over 5.5 Goals30.5%

2-3 Goals27.4%

Under 2.5 Goals17.0%

Exactly 3 Goals16.5%

1-2 Goals15.6%

Exactly 2 Goals10.9%

Under 1.5 Goals6.1%

Under 0.5 Goals1.3%

Exactly 0 Goals1.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.1%

Away Team to Score81.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)76.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)23.3%

Home Clean Sheet18.4%

Home Win to Nil17.4%

Away Clean Sheet5.6%

Away Win to Nil4.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.1%

Away Over 0.581.3%

Home Over 1.577.8%

Home Over 2.554.5%

Home 3+ Goals54.5%

Away Over 1.550.1%

Away Exactly 131.1%

Away Exactly 226.3%

Away Over 2.523.9%

Away 3+ Goals23.9%

Home Exactly 223.3%

Away Exactly 018.4%

Home Exactly 116.2%

Home Exactly 05.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)93.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away93.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)90.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home90.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)86.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away86.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)78.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home78.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)74.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away74.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)62.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)56.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away56.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)42.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home42.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)37.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away37.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)25.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home25.6%

Home to win by 3+25.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)20.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.2%

Home to win by 119.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.2%

Home to win by 217.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)13.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home13.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw12.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.3%

Away to win by 111.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)9.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away9.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw7.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)5.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home5.9%

Away to win by 25.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.7%

Away to win by 3+3.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.571.6%

Home & Over 2.554.7%

Home & BTTS44.6%

Away & Over 2.517.7%

Home & No BTTS17.4%

Away & BTTS16.3%

Draw & BTTS15.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.511.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.4%

Draw & Over 2.510.7%

Home & Under 2.57.3%

Draw & Under 2.56.1%

BTTS & Under 2.55.1%

Away & No BTTS4.6%

Away & Under 2.53.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.2%

HT Over 1.560.8%

HT Home Win49.2%

2nd Half More Goals48.8%

HT/FT Home/Home42.2%

HT Under 1.539.2%

HT Both Teams Score38.6%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw28.9%

HT Away Win21.9%

Equal Goals Each Half18.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.2%

HT Under 0.512.8%

HT/FT Away/Away12.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.4%

HT/FT Away/Home4.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Away2.3%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners75.2%

Home Most Corners74.2%

Home Over 4.5 Corners71.5%

Under 10.5 Corners64.5%

Over 8.5 Corners60.8%

Under 9.5 Corners52.2%

Over 9.5 Corners47.8%

Under 8.5 Corners39.2%

Over 10.5 Corners35.5%

Away Over 4.5 Corners27.5%

Over 11.5 Corners24.8%

Away Most Corners16.2%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards87.9%

Under 4.5 Cards75.6%

Over 2.5 Cards64.7%

Under 3.5 Cards57.3%

Over 3.5 Cards42.7%

Under 2.5 Cards35.3%

Over 4.5 Cards24.4%

Over 0.5 Red Cards13.3%

Over 5.5 Cards12.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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