UEFA Europa Conference League

FC Lugano vs NSI Runavik

Full time · 2:0

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

95% confidence

FC Lugano 95.2% Draw 3.8% NSI Runavik 1.0%

Over 2.5 - 87% BTTS - 39%

✓ Pick was correct (2:0)

🎯 Best Pick

Home Win

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-0 at 11.5%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.5%

Exact-score model probability

FC Lugano

W W

Form 2-0-0 Goals 6:1 Scored/game 3 Conceded/game 0.5

NSI Runavik

W L W D

Form 2-1-1 Goals 5:4 Scored/game 1.25 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

FC Lugano win95.2%

Draw3.8%

NSI Runavik win1.0%

Over 1.5 goals96.0%

Over 2.5 goals87.0%

Over 3.5 goals72.4%

Both teams to score39.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.9%

Home Win

91.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)

91.6%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home98.8%

Home or Draw (1X)94.9%

Home or Away (12)92.7%

Home Win91.6%

Both Halves Over 0.583.7%

Goal in Both Halves83.7%

Draw or Away (X2)4.4%

Exactly 1 Goal3.4%

Draw3.3%

Draw No Bet - Away1.2%

Away Win1.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.3%

Over 1.5 Goals91.9%

Over 2.5 Goals83.5%

Over 3.5 Goals69.5%

4+ Goals69.5%

Under 5.5 Goals65.6%

Over 4.5 Goals51.9%

Total Goals Even48.3%

Under 4.5 Goals48.1%

Total Goals Odd47.7%

2-4 Goals40.0%

Over 5.5 Goals34.4%

3-4 Goals31.6%

Under 3.5 Goals30.5%

1-3 Goals25.8%

2-3 Goals22.5%

Under 2.5 Goals16.5%

Exactly 3 Goals14.0%

1-2 Goals11.8%

Exactly 2 Goals8.4%

Under 1.5 Goals8.1%

Under 0.5 Goals4.7%

Exactly 0 Goals0.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)62.7%

Home Clean Sheet58.2%

Home Win to Nil57.5%

Away Team to Score37.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)37.3%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Exactly 058.2%

Away Over 0.537.8%

Away Exactly 129.1%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Away Over 1.58.7%

Away Exactly 27.3%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Away Over 2.51.4%

Away 3+ Goals1.4%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)94.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home94.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)91.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)83.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home83.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)76.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)70.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home70.0%

Home to win by 3+70.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)61.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away61.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)52.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home52.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)43.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away43.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)34.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home34.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)26.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away26.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)19.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home19.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw17.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw14.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.6%

Home to win by 213.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)12.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away12.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw8.0%

Home to win by 18.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away4.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw0.9%

Away to win by 10.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.2%

Away to win by 20.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Away to win by 3+0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.581.7%

Home & No BTTS57.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.547.7%

BTTS & Over 2.535.8%

Home & BTTS34.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.510.9%

Home & Under 2.59.9%

Draw & BTTS2.6%

Draw & Under 2.52.2%

BTTS & Under 2.51.5%

Draw & Over 2.51.1%

Away & Over 2.50.7%

Away & BTTS0.6%

Away & Under 2.50.4%

Away & No BTTS0.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.589.4%

HT Home Win80.8%

HT/FT Home/Home79.9%

HT Over 1.565.7%

2nd Half More Goals49.5%

HT Under 1.534.3%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

Equal Goals Each Half17.9%

HT Both Teams Score17.5%

HT Draw15.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.6%

HT Under 0.510.6%

HT Away Win3.3%

HT/FT Away/Home2.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw1.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw0.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw0.7%

HT/FT Away/Away0.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away0.4%

HT/FT Home/Away0.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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