UEFA Europa Conference League

FC Midtjylland vs Ajax

Kick-off 18:45 · Thu, Nov 5

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

73% confidence

FC Midtjylland 14.6% Draw 12.0% Ajax 73.4%

Over 2.5 - 96% BTTS - 88%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

88%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

88%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-4 at 5.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Ajax: 9 points versus 14 across the last 5 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.07 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-4

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.1%

Exact-score model probability

FC Midtjylland

W W W L L

Form 3-0-2 Goals 7:5 Scored/game 1.4 Conceded/game 1

Ajax

W W W D D W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 16:7 Scored/game 2.67 Conceded/game 1.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

FC Midtjylland win14.6%

Draw12.0%

Ajax win73.4%

Over 1.5 goals99.1%

Over 2.5 goals95.9%

Over 3.5 goals89.2%

Both teams to score88.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 11.5 Corners

90.8%

Away Over 1.5

89.7%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

89.7%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.592.4%

Goal in Both Halves92.4%

Home or Away (12)85.1%

Draw No Bet - Away83.2%

Draw or Away (X2)82.1%

Away Win70.8%

Home or Draw (1X)25.5%

Draw No Bet - Home16.8%

Home Win14.3%

Draw11.3%

Exactly 1 Goal0.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.2%

Over 1.5 Goals95.4%

Over 2.5 Goals92.4%

Over 3.5 Goals86.0%

4+ Goals86.0%

Over 4.5 Goals75.3%

Over 5.5 Goals61.1%

Total Goals Odd48.2%

Total Goals Even48.2%

Under 5.5 Goals38.9%

Under 4.5 Goals24.7%

2-4 Goals20.1%

3-4 Goals17.1%

Under 3.5 Goals14.0%

1-3 Goals10.3%

2-3 Goals9.4%

Under 2.5 Goals7.6%

Exactly 3 Goals6.5%

Under 1.5 Goals4.6%

Under 0.5 Goals3.8%

1-2 Goals3.8%

Exactly 2 Goals2.9%

Exactly 0 Goals0.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score95.1%

Home Team to Score85.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)84.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)15.2%

Away Clean Sheet10.5%

Away Win to Nil10.4%

Home Clean Sheet1.2%

Home Win to Nil1.1%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.595.1%

Away Over 1.589.7%

Home Over 0.585.9%

Away Over 2.577.9%

Away 3+ Goals77.9%

Home Over 1.562.6%

Home Over 2.536.8%

Home 3+ Goals36.8%

Home Exactly 225.8%

Home Exactly 123.3%

Away Exactly 211.9%

Home Exactly 010.5%

Away Exactly 15.4%

Away Exactly 01.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)93.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away93.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)89.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)89.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away89.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)82.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away82.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)81.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home81.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)70.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)70.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home70.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)56.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away56.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)55.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home55.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)40.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away40.5%

Away to win by 3+40.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)40.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home40.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)26.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away26.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)25.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home25.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw15.8%

Away to win by 215.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw14.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)14.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away14.5%

Away to win by 114.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)14.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw11.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw7.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw7.3%

Home to win by 17.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)7.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home7.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)6.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away6.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw4.0%

Home to win by 24.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.9%

Home to win by 3+2.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.583.5%

Away & Over 2.569.0%

Away & BTTS60.5%

Home & Over 2.513.6%

Home & BTTS13.2%

Draw & BTTS11.1%

Away & No BTTS10.4%

Draw & Over 2.59.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.52.6%

Away & Under 2.51.9%

Draw & Under 2.51.4%

BTTS & Under 2.51.3%

Home & No BTTS1.1%

Home & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.594.9%

HT Over 1.579.7%

HT Away Win60.2%

HT Both Teams Score54.4%

HT/FT Away/Away54.4%

2nd Half More Goals52.2%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw21.4%

HT Under 1.520.3%

HT Home Win18.4%

Equal Goals Each Half15.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away13.6%

HT/FT Home/Home8.4%

HT/FT Home/Away6.3%

HT Under 0.55.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home3.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Away/Home2.1%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners90.8%

Away Most Corners88.8%

Under 10.5 Corners84.4%

Under 9.5 Corners75.2%

Away Over 4.5 Corners68.0%

Under 8.5 Corners63.3%

Over 8.5 Corners36.7%

Over 9.5 Corners24.8%

Over 10.5 Corners15.6%

Over 11.5 Corners9.2%

Home Most Corners5.4%

Home Over 4.5 Corners4.9%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards78.5%

Over 2.5 Cards76.2%

Under 4.5 Cards62.9%

Over 3.5 Cards56.7%

Under 3.5 Cards43.3%

Over 4.5 Cards37.1%

Under 2.5 Cards23.8%

Over 5.5 Cards21.5%

Over 0.5 Red Cards16.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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