UEFA Europa League

FC Midtjylland vs Beşiktaş

Kick-off 18:00 · Thu, Jul 30

📊 Our Prediction

Draw or Away (X2)

67% confidence

FC Midtjylland 8.0% Draw 25.0% Beşiktaş 67.0%

Over 2.5 - 27% BTTS - 21%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

Beşiktaş form

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 51%

⚠️ AIs disagree

70%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Away Clean Sheet

Midtjylland struggles

74%

Under 2.5 Goals

Low scoring

73%

🤖 AI Match Analysis

FC Midtjylland is in poor form, having lost their last match. Beşiktaş has a significant form gap and an attacking threat. Midtjylland's defensive strength is a concern, and the absence of key players will impact their performance. The H2H significance is also in favor of Beşiktaş.

💡

Top Tip

Draw or Away is the strongest pick due to Beşiktaş's superior form and Midtjylland's struggles

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

X2 · Draw or Away covers 92% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 8.0% on the only losing outcome.

Beşiktaş form

Numbers behind this Draw or Away (X2)

X2 · Draw or Away

92%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

Only the uncovered result loses

Bookmaker implied chance

51%

Market does not fully agree

FC Midtjylland

Form 0-0-1 Goals 0:1 Scored/game 0 Conceded/game 1

Beşiktaş

W D L W

Form 2-1-1 Goals 6:4 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 1

FC Midtjylland 0wins ·0 draws ·Beşiktaş 1wins

FC Midtjylland 0-1 BeşiktaşJul 23, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

FC Midtjylland win8.0%

Draw25.0%

Beşiktaş win67.0%

Over 1.5 goals54.7%

Over 2.5 goals27.0%

Over 3.5 goals10.9%

Both teams to score21.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Draw No Bet - Away

90.5%

Under 3.5 Goals

89.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

84.3%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)92.9%

Draw No Bet - Away90.5%

Home or Away (12)75.1%

Away Win68.0%

Both Halves Over 0.534.9%

Goal in Both Halves34.9%

Home or Draw (1X)32.0%

Exactly 1 Goal29.8%

Draw24.8%

Draw No Bet - Home9.5%

Home Win7.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals99.0%

Under 4.5 Goals96.4%

Under 3.5 Goals89.1%

Over 0.5 Goals83.5%

Under 2.5 Goals73.1%

1-3 Goals72.6%

1-2 Goals56.5%

Over 1.5 Goals53.7%

Total Goals Even51.4%

2-4 Goals50.1%

Total Goals Odd48.6%

Under 1.5 Goals46.3%

2-3 Goals42.8%

Over 2.5 Goals26.9%

Exactly 2 Goals26.8%

3-4 Goals23.3%

Under 0.5 Goals16.5%

Exactly 0 Goals16.5%

Exactly 3 Goals16.1%

Over 3.5 Goals10.9%

4+ Goals10.9%

Over 4.5 Goals3.6%

Over 5.5 Goals1.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

No Both Teams Score (NG)79.9%

Away Team to Score77.7%

Away Clean Sheet74.1%

Away Win to Nil57.5%

Home Team to Score25.9%

Home Clean Sheet22.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)20.1%

Home Win to Nil5.8%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.577.7%

Home Exactly 074.1%

Away Over 1.544.2%

Away Exactly 133.5%

Home Over 0.525.9%

Away Exactly 225.1%

Away Exactly 022.3%

Home Exactly 122.2%

Away Over 2.519.1%

Away 3+ Goals19.1%

Home Over 1.53.7%

Home Exactly 23.3%

Home Over 2.50.4%

Home 3+ Goals0.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +3.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away100.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away100.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away99.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)94.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home94.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)92.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away92.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)84.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home84.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)68.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)62.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home62.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)37.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away37.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)32.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home32.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw30.8%

Away to win by 130.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw21.5%

Away to win by 221.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)15.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away15.7%

Away to win by 3+15.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw10.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)7.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw6.2%

Home to win by 16.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)5.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away5.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home1.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw0.9%

Home to win by 20.9%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.1%

Home to win by 3+0.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.565.6%

Away & No BTTS57.5%

Away & Under 2.543.4%

Away & Over 2.524.6%

Draw & Under 2.524.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.514.2%

BTTS & Over 2.512.7%

Away & BTTS10.5%

Draw & BTTS8.3%

BTTS & Under 2.57.4%

Home & No BTTS5.8%

Home & Under 2.55.7%

Home & Over 2.51.4%

Home & BTTS1.3%

Draw & Over 2.50.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.580.5%

HT Over 0.555.5%

HT Draw48.6%

HT Away Win44.6%

HT Under 0.544.5%

HT/FT Away/Away42.4%

2nd Half More Goals38.6%

Equal Goals Each Half32.7%

1st Half More Goals28.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away24.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw20.6%

HT Over 1.519.5%

HT Home Win6.7%

HT Both Teams Score6.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home3.5%

HT/FT Home/Home3.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.1%

HT/FT Home/Away1.1%

HT/FT Away/Home0.2%

🔎 API-Football Model

An independent statistical model, shown for comparison.

FC Midtjylland win0%

Draw50%

Beşiktaş win50%

AdviceCombo Double chance : draw or Beşiktaş and -2.5 goals

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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