UEFA Europa Conference League

FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden

Kick-off 20:00 · Thu, Oct 22

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

48% confidence

FC Midtjylland 47.9% Draw 17.4% St. Truiden 34.7%

Over 2.5 - 93% BTTS - 90%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

90%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

83%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-2 at 5.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to St. Truiden: 9 points versus 11 across the last 5 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.57 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.4%

Exact-score model probability

FC Midtjylland

W W W L L

Form 3-0-2 Goals 7:5 Scored/game 1.4 Conceded/game 1

St. Truiden

W W D D W L

Form 3-2-1 Goals 13:8 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

FC Midtjylland win47.9%

Draw17.4%

St. Truiden win34.7%

Over 1.5 goals98.3%

Over 2.5 goals93.1%

Over 3.5 goals83.4%

Both teams to score89.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

89.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

89.9%

Both Halves Over 0.5

89.1%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.589.1%

Goal in Both Halves89.1%

Home or Away (12)82.6%

Home or Draw (1X)64.5%

Draw No Bet - Home57.9%

Draw or Away (X2)51.4%

Home Win47.9%

Draw No Bet - Away42.1%

Away Win34.8%

Draw16.7%

Exactly 1 Goal1.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.0%

Over 1.5 Goals97.3%

Over 2.5 Goals92.4%

Over 3.5 Goals82.9%

4+ Goals82.9%

Over 4.5 Goals68.8%

Over 5.5 Goals52.4%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Under 5.5 Goals47.6%

Under 4.5 Goals31.2%

2-4 Goals28.5%

3-4 Goals23.6%

Under 3.5 Goals17.1%

1-3 Goals16.2%

2-3 Goals14.5%

Exactly 3 Goals9.6%

Under 2.5 Goals7.6%

1-2 Goals6.6%

Exactly 2 Goals4.9%

Under 1.5 Goals2.7%

Under 0.5 Goals1.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.0%

Away Team to Score92.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)88.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)11.3%

Home Clean Sheet6.6%

Home Win to Nil6.3%

Away Clean Sheet4.3%

Away Win to Nil4.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.0%

Away Over 0.592.7%

Home Over 1.581.4%

Away Over 1.574.9%

Home Over 2.560.1%

Home 3+ Goals60.1%

Away Over 2.550.7%

Away 3+ Goals50.7%

Away Exactly 224.2%

Home Exactly 221.3%

Away Exactly 117.8%

Home Exactly 113.6%

Away Exactly 06.6%

Home Exactly 04.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)94.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home94.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)89.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away89.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)88.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home88.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)80.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away80.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)78.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home78.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)67.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away67.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)64.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home64.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)51.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away51.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)47.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)34.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)31.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home31.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)20.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away20.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)18.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home18.4%

Home to win by 3+18.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.3%

Home to win by 116.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.1%

Away to win by 114.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.2%

Home to win by 213.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)10.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away10.7%

Away to win by 3+10.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw9.9%

Away to win by 29.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)9.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home9.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw9.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.6%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.586.3%

Home & Over 2.545.6%

Home & BTTS41.6%

Away & Over 2.532.9%

Away & BTTS30.7%

Draw & BTTS16.4%

Draw & Over 2.513.9%

Home & No BTTS6.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.56.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.4%

Away & No BTTS4.0%

Draw & Under 2.52.7%

BTTS & Under 2.52.4%

Home & Under 2.52.3%

Away & Under 2.51.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.8%

HT Over 1.573.9%

HT Both Teams Score53.4%

2nd Half More Goals51.1%

HT Home Win41.3%

HT Away Win32.6%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT/FT Home/Home31.8%

HT Under 1.526.1%

HT Draw26.0%

HT/FT Away/Away22.0%

Equal Goals Each Half16.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.7%

HT Under 0.57.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Away/Home5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Away4.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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