Portugal · Primeira Liga

FC Porto vs Alverca

Kick-off 18:00 · Sun, Aug 9

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

78% confidence

FC Porto 78.4% Draw 15.1% Alverca 6.4%

Over 2.5 - 52% BTTS - 44%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw No Bet - Home

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 17.3%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to FC Porto: 15 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

17.3%

Exact-score model probability

FC Porto

W L W W W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 10:5 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 0.83

Alverca

L D L W L W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 6:6 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 2

FC Porto 2wins ·0 draws ·Alverca 0wins

FC Porto 1-0 AlvercaMay 2, 2026

FC Porto 3-0 AlvercaDec 22, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

FC Porto win78.4%

Draw15.1%

Alverca win6.4%

Over 1.5 goals76.3%

Over 2.5 goals52.4%

Over 3.5 goals30.2%

Both teams to score44.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

90.9%

Home Over 0.5

90.9%

Home or Away (12)

86.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)95.2%

Draw No Bet - Home94.6%

Home or Away (12)86.4%

Home Win81.7%

Both Halves Over 0.556.6%

Goal in Both Halves56.6%

Draw or Away (X2)18.2%

Exactly 1 Goal16.8%

Draw13.5%

Draw No Bet - Away5.4%

Away Win4.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals93.9%

Under 5.5 Goals93.4%

Under 4.5 Goals84.6%

Over 1.5 Goals77.1%

Under 3.5 Goals68.9%

1-3 Goals62.8%

2-4 Goals61.7%

Over 2.5 Goals53.4%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals46.6%

2-3 Goals46.0%

1-2 Goals40.5%

3-4 Goals38.0%

Over 3.5 Goals31.1%

4+ Goals31.1%

Exactly 2 Goals23.7%

Under 1.5 Goals22.9%

Exactly 3 Goals22.3%

Over 4.5 Goals15.4%

Over 5.5 Goals6.6%

Under 0.5 Goals6.1%

Exactly 0 Goals6.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score90.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)69.4%

Home Clean Sheet66.2%

Home Win to Nil60.3%

Away Team to Score33.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)30.6%

Away Clean Sheet9.0%

Away Win to Nil3.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.590.9%

Home Over 1.569.2%

Away Exactly 066.2%

Home Over 2.543.1%

Home 3+ Goals43.1%

Away Over 0.533.7%

Away Exactly 127.2%

Home Exactly 226.1%

Home Exactly 121.7%

Home Exactly 09.0%

Away Over 1.56.4%

Away Exactly 25.6%

Away Over 2.50.9%

Away 3+ Goals0.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home99.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home95.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)92.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away92.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)82.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away82.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)81.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)64.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away64.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)59.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home59.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)40.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away40.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)35.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home35.2%

Home to win by 3+35.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw23.8%

Home to win by 223.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.8%

Home to win by 122.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)18.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away18.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)17.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home17.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw10.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)7.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home7.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw3.9%

Away to win by 13.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.7%

Away to win by 20.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.1%

Away to win by 3+0.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & No BTTS60.3%

Home & Over 2.550.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.540.6%

Home & Under 2.531.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.528.7%

BTTS & Over 2.524.7%

Home & BTTS21.5%

Draw & Under 2.511.9%

Draw & BTTS7.5%

BTTS & Under 2.55.9%

Away & Under 2.53.0%

Away & No BTTS3.0%

Away & Over 2.51.7%

Draw & Over 2.51.6%

Away & BTTS1.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.571.9%

HT Under 1.563.8%

HT Home Win59.7%

HT/FT Home/Home57.5%

2nd Half More Goals43.9%

HT Over 1.536.2%

HT Draw34.0%

1st Half More Goals31.2%

HT Under 0.528.1%

Equal Goals Each Half24.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home22.4%

HT Both Teams Score11.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.6%

HT Away Win6.3%

HT/FT Away/Away2.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.0%

HT/FT Away/Home2.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.0%

HT/FT Home/Away0.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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