Portugal · Primeira Liga

FC Porto vs Arouca

Kick-off 20:30 · Sun, Aug 23

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

77% confidence

FC Porto 76.9% Draw 14.7% Arouca 8.3%

Over 2.5 - 59% BTTS - 49%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

89%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

77%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 11.3%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to FC Porto: 15 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.3%

Exact-score model probability

FC Porto

W W W L W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 9:4 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.67

Arouca

W W W W D L

Form 4-1-1 Goals 14:6 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 5

FC Porto 4wins ·0 draws ·Arouca 1wins

FC Porto 3-1 AroucaFeb 27, 2026

FC Porto 4-0 AroucaSep 29, 2025

FC Porto 2-0 AroucaMar 1, 2025

FC Porto 4-0 AroucaSep 29, 2024

FC Porto 2-3 AroucaFeb 12, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

FC Porto win76.9%

Draw14.7%

Arouca win8.3%

Over 1.5 goals80.5%

Over 2.5 goals58.8%

Over 3.5 goals36.4%

Both teams to score49.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

91.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

91.9%

Home Team to Score

86.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)84.3%

Draw No Bet - Home80.2%

Home or Away (12)79.1%

Home Win63.4%

Both Halves Over 0.557.5%

Goal in Both Halves57.5%

Draw or Away (X2)36.5%

Draw20.8%

Draw No Bet - Away19.8%

Exactly 1 Goal16.3%

Away Win15.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.3%

Under 5.5 Goals92.9%

Under 4.5 Goals83.7%

Over 1.5 Goals78.0%

Under 3.5 Goals67.7%

1-3 Goals62.0%

2-4 Goals61.7%

Over 2.5 Goals54.6%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

2-3 Goals45.7%

Under 2.5 Goals45.4%

1-2 Goals39.7%

3-4 Goals38.3%

Over 3.5 Goals32.3%

4+ Goals32.3%

Exactly 2 Goals23.4%

Exactly 3 Goals22.3%

Under 1.5 Goals22.0%

Over 4.5 Goals16.3%

Over 5.5 Goals7.1%

Under 0.5 Goals5.7%

Exactly 0 Goals5.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score86.3%

Away Team to Score58.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)50.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)49.7%

Home Clean Sheet41.7%

Home Win to Nil36.0%

Away Clean Sheet13.6%

Away Win to Nil7.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.586.3%

Home Over 1.559.2%

Away Over 0.558.3%

Away Exactly 041.7%

Away Exactly 136.5%

Home Over 2.532.1%

Home 3+ Goals32.1%

Home Exactly 127.2%

Home Exactly 227.1%

Away Over 1.521.8%

Away Exactly 215.9%

Home Exactly 013.6%

Away Over 2.55.9%

Away 3+ Goals5.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)91.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away91.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)84.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home84.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)80.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away80.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)63.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)61.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away61.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)38.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home38.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)36.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away36.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw24.5%

Home to win by 124.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.5%

Home to win by 219.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)19.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home19.4%

Home to win by 3+19.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)15.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.8%

Away to win by 110.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)8.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home8.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)4.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away4.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.7%

Away to win by 23.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.2%

Away to win by 3+1.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.540.8%

BTTS & Over 2.540.4%

Home & No BTTS36.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.535.5%

Home & BTTS27.4%

Home & Under 2.522.6%

Draw & Under 2.515.6%

Draw & BTTS15.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.514.2%

BTTS & Under 2.59.9%

Away & Over 2.58.6%

Away & No BTTS7.9%

Away & BTTS7.8%

Away & Under 2.57.1%

Draw & Over 2.55.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.572.5%

HT Under 1.563.0%

HT Home Win46.3%

2nd Half More Goals44.1%

HT/FT Home/Home41.1%

HT Draw38.1%

HT Over 1.537.0%

1st Half More Goals31.3%

HT Under 0.527.5%

Equal Goals Each Half24.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home19.4%

HT Both Teams Score19.2%

HT Away Win15.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.6%

HT/FT Away/Away8.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Away/Home3.0%

HT/FT Home/Away1.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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