Portugal · Primeira Liga

FC Porto vs Benfica

Kick-off 20:30 · Sun, Sep 20

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

42% confidence

FC Porto 41.6% Draw 26.9% Benfica 31.5%

Over 2.5 - 43% BTTS - 57%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

81%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

73%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 10%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Benfica: 15 points versus 18 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 5.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10%

Exact-score model probability

FC Porto

W L W W W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 13:4 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 0.67

Benfica

W W W W W W

Form 6-0-0 Goals 18:4 Scored/game 3 Conceded/game 0.67

Head to head · last 5

FC Porto 1wins ·2 draws ·Benfica 2wins

FC Porto 2-2 BenficaMar 8, 2026

FC Porto 0-0 BenficaOct 5, 2025

FC Porto 1-4 BenficaApr 6, 2025

FC Porto 1-4 BenficaNov 10, 2024

FC Porto 5-0 BenficaMar 3, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

FC Porto win41.6%

Draw26.9%

Benfica win31.5%

Over 1.5 goals68.8%

Over 2.5 goals42.9%

Over 3.5 goals22.1%

Both teams to score57.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

90.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

90.9%

Under 5.5 Goals

90.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)78.1%

Draw or Away (X2)77.0%

Draw No Bet - Away70.6%

Both Halves Over 0.562.5%

Goal in Both Halves62.5%

Away Win55.2%

Home or Draw (1X)44.8%

Draw No Bet - Home29.4%

Home Win22.9%

Draw21.8%

Exactly 1 Goal13.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.7%

Under 5.5 Goals90.0%

Over 1.5 Goals82.3%

Under 4.5 Goals78.8%

Under 3.5 Goals61.2%

Over 2.5 Goals61.1%

2-4 Goals61.1%

1-3 Goals57.0%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals43.5%

3-4 Goals39.9%

Under 2.5 Goals38.9%

Over 3.5 Goals38.8%

4+ Goals38.8%

1-2 Goals34.6%

Exactly 3 Goals22.3%

Over 4.5 Goals21.2%

Exactly 2 Goals21.2%

Under 1.5 Goals17.7%

Over 5.5 Goals10.0%

Under 0.5 Goals4.3%

Exactly 0 Goals4.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score85.9%

Home Team to Score69.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)59.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)40.1%

Away Clean Sheet30.3%

Away Win to Nil26.0%

Home Clean Sheet14.1%

Home Win to Nil9.8%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.585.9%

Home Over 0.569.7%

Away Over 1.558.3%

Home Exactly 136.2%

Home Over 1.533.5%

Away Over 2.531.3%

Away 3+ Goals31.3%

Home Exactly 030.3%

Away Exactly 127.6%

Away Exactly 227.1%

Home Exactly 221.6%

Away Exactly 014.1%

Home Over 2.511.9%

Home 3+ Goals11.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)93.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home93.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)90.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away90.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)84.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home84.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)77.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away77.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)67.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home67.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)55.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)44.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home44.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)32.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away32.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)22.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw22.8%

Away to win by 122.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw16.8%

Away to win by 216.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)15.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away15.6%

Away to win by 3+15.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw13.9%

Home to win by 113.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw9.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)9.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home9.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)6.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw6.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away6.2%

Home to win by 26.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw4.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.8%

Home to win by 3+2.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away2.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.549.9%

Away & Over 2.538.6%

Away & BTTS29.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.528.9%

Away & No BTTS26.0%

Draw & BTTS17.6%

Away & Under 2.516.5%

Home & Over 2.514.8%

Draw & Under 2.514.2%

Home & BTTS13.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.1%

BTTS & Under 2.510.0%

Home & No BTTS9.8%

Home & Under 2.58.1%

Draw & Over 2.57.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.575.8%

HT Under 1.558.5%

2nd Half More Goals45.1%

HT Away Win41.7%

HT Over 1.541.5%

HT Draw37.1%

HT/FT Away/Away35.1%

1st Half More Goals31.6%

HT Both Teams Score24.4%

HT Under 0.524.2%

Equal Goals Each Half23.3%

HT Home Win21.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away16.8%

HT/FT Home/Home13.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home8.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Away3.3%

HT/FT Away/Home1.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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