Portugal · Primeira Liga

FC Porto vs Estoril

Kick-off 21:30 · Sat, Oct 31

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

81% confidence

FC Porto 80.8% Draw 12.6% Estoril 6.5%

Over 2.5 - 61% BTTS - 41%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

82%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

81%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 13.6%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to FC Porto: 12 points versus 1 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

13.6%

Exact-score model probability

FC Porto

W L L W W W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 12:7 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.17

Estoril

L L L L D L

Form 0-1-5 Goals 4:10 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 5

FC Porto 4wins ·0 draws ·Estoril 1wins

FC Porto 3-1 EstorilApr 12, 2026

FC Porto 1-0 EstorilNov 30, 2025

FC Porto 2-1 EstorilMar 30, 2025

FC Porto 4-0 EstorilNov 3, 2024

FC Porto 0-1 EstorilMar 30, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

FC Porto win80.8%

Draw12.6%

Estoril win6.5%

Over 1.5 goals81.8%

Over 2.5 goals61.0%

Over 3.5 goals38.7%

Both teams to score40.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

90.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

90.2%

Under 5.5 Goals

88.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)94.1%

Draw No Bet - Home93.5%

Home or Away (12)87.4%

Home Win81.7%

Both Halves Over 0.564.6%

Goal in Both Halves64.6%

Draw or Away (X2)18.1%

Draw12.4%

Exactly 1 Goal12.3%

Draw No Bet - Away6.5%

Away Win5.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.1%

Under 5.5 Goals88.6%

Over 1.5 Goals83.8%

Under 4.5 Goals76.7%

Over 2.5 Goals63.6%

2-4 Goals60.5%

Under 3.5 Goals58.5%

1-3 Goals54.5%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

2-3 Goals42.3%

Over 3.5 Goals41.5%

4+ Goals41.5%

3-4 Goals40.3%

Under 2.5 Goals36.4%

1-2 Goals32.4%

Over 4.5 Goals23.3%

Exactly 3 Goals22.1%

Exactly 2 Goals20.2%

Under 1.5 Goals16.2%

Over 5.5 Goals11.4%

Under 0.5 Goals3.9%

Exactly 0 Goals3.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score93.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)58.8%

Home Clean Sheet55.7%

Home Win to Nil51.9%

Away Team to Score44.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)41.2%

Away Clean Sheet6.7%

Away Win to Nil3.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.593.1%

Home Over 1.575.0%

Away Exactly 055.7%

Home Over 2.550.6%

Home 3+ Goals50.6%

Away Over 0.544.1%

Away Exactly 132.5%

Home Exactly 224.5%

Home Exactly 118.1%

Away Over 1.511.6%

Away Exactly 29.5%

Home Exactly 06.7%

Away Over 2.52.2%

Away 3+ Goals2.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home98.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)94.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home94.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)90.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away90.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)81.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)78.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away78.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)61.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home61.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)60.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away60.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)38.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home38.9%

Home to win by 3+38.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)38.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away38.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw22.4%

Home to win by 222.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)20.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home20.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.5%

Home to win by 120.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)18.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away18.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw18.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw11.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)9.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home9.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw5.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)5.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw4.4%

Away to win by 14.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.0%

Away to win by 21.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.2%

Away to win by 3+0.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.558.0%

Home & No BTTS51.9%

BTTS & Over 2.535.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.530.3%

Home & BTTS29.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.528.3%

Home & Under 2.523.7%

Draw & Under 2.59.6%

Draw & BTTS8.7%

BTTS & Under 2.55.9%

Away & No BTTS3.0%

Away & Over 2.52.9%

Draw & Over 2.52.8%

Away & Under 2.52.8%

Away & BTTS2.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.577.2%

HT Home Win61.4%

HT/FT Home/Home58.7%

HT Under 1.556.5%

2nd Half More Goals45.5%

HT Over 1.543.5%

1st Half More Goals31.7%

HT Draw30.6%

HT Under 0.522.8%

Equal Goals Each Half22.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home20.6%

HT Both Teams Score16.3%

HT Away Win7.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.7%

HT/FT Away/Away2.9%

HT/FT Away/Home2.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.3%

HT/FT Home/Away0.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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