Portugal · Primeira Liga

FC Porto vs Moreirense

Kick-off 20:15 · Fri, Sep 4

📊 Our Prediction

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

79% confidence

FC Porto 78.9% Draw 14.8% Moreirense 6.3%

Over 2.5 - 51% BTTS - 26%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

79%

Draw No Bet - Home

DNB home — draw refunds stake

79%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 14.8%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to FC Porto: 15 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +2.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

14.8%

Exact-score model probability

FC Porto

W W W W W L

Form 5-0-1 Goals 11:3 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 0.5

Moreirense

W L D D L W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 6:10 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 5

FC Porto 5wins ·0 draws ·Moreirense 0wins

FC Porto 3-0 MoreirenseMar 15, 2026

FC Porto 2-1 MoreirenseOct 27, 2025

FC Porto 3-1 MoreirenseMay 2, 2025

FC Porto 3-0 MoreirenseDec 21, 2024

FC Porto 5-0 MoreirenseJan 20, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

FC Porto win78.9%

Draw14.8%

Moreirense win6.3%

Over 1.5 goals75.0%

Over 2.5 goals50.9%

Over 3.5 goals28.8%

Both teams to score25.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Win

91.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)

91.7%

Over 1.5 Goals

89.1%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home98.3%

Home or Draw (1X)97.4%

Home or Away (12)93.3%

Home Win91.7%

Both Halves Over 0.573.1%

Goal in Both Halves73.1%

Exactly 1 Goal7.8%

Draw or Away (X2)7.2%

Draw5.6%

Draw No Bet - Away1.7%

Away Win1.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.9%

Over 1.5 Goals89.1%

Under 5.5 Goals81.0%

Over 2.5 Goals73.8%

Under 4.5 Goals65.7%

2-4 Goals54.8%

Over 3.5 Goals53.8%

4+ Goals53.8%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Total Goals Odd49.3%

Under 3.5 Goals46.2%

1-3 Goals43.2%

3-4 Goals39.5%

2-3 Goals35.3%

Over 4.5 Goals34.3%

Under 2.5 Goals26.2%

1-2 Goals23.2%

Exactly 3 Goals20.0%

Over 5.5 Goals19.0%

Exactly 2 Goals15.3%

Under 1.5 Goals10.9%

Under 0.5 Goals3.1%

Exactly 0 Goals2.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)70.3%

Home Clean Sheet68.3%

Home Win to Nil66.3%

Away Team to Score30.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)29.7%

Away Clean Sheet2.9%

Away Win to Nil0.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.0%

Home Over 1.585.8%

Away Exactly 068.3%

Home Over 2.567.6%

Home 3+ Goals67.6%

Away Over 0.530.6%

Away Exactly 125.3%

Home Exactly 218.2%

Home Exactly 110.3%

Away Over 1.55.3%

Away Exactly 24.7%

Home Exactly 02.9%

Away Over 2.50.6%

Away 3+ Goals0.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home98.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home97.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)91.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)87.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)78.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home78.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)76.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away76.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)59.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home59.8%

Home to win by 3+59.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)59.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away59.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)39.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home39.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)39.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away39.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)22.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home22.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw20.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)20.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away20.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.0%

Home to win by 219.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw16.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.9%

Home to win by 112.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw11.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)11.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home11.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)7.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away7.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw1.3%

Away to win by 11.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.2%

Away to win by 20.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Away to win by 3+0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.572.1%

Home & No BTTS66.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.546.7%

BTTS & Over 2.527.1%

Home & BTTS25.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.522.6%

Home & Under 2.519.7%

Draw & Under 2.54.6%

Draw & BTTS3.6%

BTTS & Under 2.52.6%

Draw & Over 2.51.0%

Away & Under 2.50.9%

Away & No BTTS0.9%

Away & Over 2.50.7%

Away & BTTS0.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.582.8%

HT Home Win74.3%

HT/FT Home/Home73.3%

HT Over 1.552.5%

HT Under 1.547.5%

2nd Half More Goals47.3%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Draw22.1%

Equal Goals Each Half20.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.7%

HT Under 0.517.2%

HT Both Teams Score12.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.7%

HT Away Win3.5%

HT/FT Away/Home1.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.0%

HT/FT Away/Away0.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away0.7%

HT/FT Home/Away0.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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