UEFA Champions League

FC Porto vs Napoli

Kick-off 21:00 · Wed, Nov 4

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

75% confidence

FC Porto 75.1% Draw 13.7% Napoli 11.2%

Over 2.5 - 86% BTTS - 73%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

86%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7.5%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to FC Porto: 12 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.5%

Exact-score model probability

FC Porto

W W L L W W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 12:6 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1

Napoli

L W D W L L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 12:13 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 2.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

FC Porto win75.1%

Draw13.7%

Napoli win11.2%

Over 1.5 goals95.8%

Over 2.5 goals86.0%

Over 3.5 goals70.9%

Both teams to score73.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

88.6%

Home or Draw (1X)

87.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

87.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)87.5%

Home or Away (12)86.6%

Draw No Bet - Home86.6%

Both Halves Over 0.582.5%

Goal in Both Halves82.5%

Home Win75.0%

Draw or Away (X2)24.1%

Draw No Bet - Away13.4%

Draw12.6%

Away Win11.6%

Exactly 1 Goal3.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.3%

Over 1.5 Goals94.5%

Over 2.5 Goals85.2%

Over 3.5 Goals70.2%

4+ Goals70.2%

Under 5.5 Goals65.4%

Over 4.5 Goals52.1%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

Under 4.5 Goals47.9%

2-4 Goals42.3%

Over 5.5 Goals34.6%

3-4 Goals33.1%

Under 3.5 Goals29.8%

1-3 Goals28.1%

2-3 Goals24.2%

Exactly 3 Goals15.0%

Under 2.5 Goals14.8%

1-2 Goals13.1%

Exactly 2 Goals9.3%

Under 1.5 Goals5.5%

Under 0.5 Goals1.7%

Exactly 0 Goals0.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.9%

Away Team to Score74.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)72.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)27.8%

Home Clean Sheet24.4%

Home Win to Nil23.6%

Away Clean Sheet3.2%

Away Win to Nil2.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.9%

Home Over 1.584.8%

Away Over 0.574.7%

Home Over 2.565.8%

Home 3+ Goals65.8%

Away Over 1.540.5%

Away Exactly 134.2%

Away Exactly 024.4%

Away Exactly 224.0%

Home Exactly 219.0%

Away Over 2.516.5%

Away 3+ Goals16.5%

Home Exactly 111.1%

Home Exactly 03.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)93.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)87.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home87.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)87.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away87.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)75.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away75.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)75.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)59.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away59.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)57.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home57.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)41.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away41.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)39.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home39.2%

Home to win by 3+39.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)24.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away24.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)23.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home23.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.5%

Home to win by 218.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.3%

Home to win by 117.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)12.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home12.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)11.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw11.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw7.0%

Away to win by 17.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home5.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)4.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away4.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.1%

Away to win by 23.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.5%

Away to win by 3+1.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.568.4%

Home & Over 2.567.6%

Home & BTTS51.3%

Home & No BTTS23.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.516.8%

Draw & BTTS11.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.510.1%

Away & Over 2.59.7%

Away & BTTS9.2%

Draw & Over 2.57.9%

Home & Under 2.57.4%

Draw & Under 2.54.6%

BTTS & Under 2.53.8%

Away & No BTTS2.4%

Away & Under 2.51.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.6%

HT Over 1.564.0%

HT Home Win59.6%

HT/FT Home/Home54.7%

2nd Half More Goals49.3%

HT Both Teams Score36.8%

HT Under 1.536.0%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw25.4%

Equal Goals Each Half18.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.2%

HT Away Win15.0%

HT Under 0.511.4%

HT/FT Away/Away6.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home4.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.5%

HT/FT Home/Away1.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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