Germany · Bundesliga

FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05

Kick-off 14:30 · Sat, Oct 17

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

34% confidence

FC Schalke 04 34.0% Draw 34.0% FSV Mainz 05 32.0%

Over 2.5 - 66% BTTS - 67%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

68%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

67%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 10.2%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to FSV Mainz 05: 8 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.2%

Exact-score model probability

FC Schalke 04

L D W D L W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 5:6 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1

FSV Mainz 05

L W L W D W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 15:10 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 2

FC Schalke 04 2wins ·0 draws ·FSV Mainz 05 0wins

FC Schalke 04 3-2 FSV Mainz 05May 5, 2023

FC Schalke 04 1-0 FSV Mainz 05Nov 9, 2022

📈 Probability Breakdown

FC Schalke 04 win34.0%

Draw34.0%

FSV Mainz 05 win32.0%

Over 1.5 goals56.3%

Over 2.5 goals66.4%

Over 3.5 goals11.8%

Both teams to score66.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

92.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

92.0%

Under 5.5 Goals

88.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)76.9%

Both Halves Over 0.564.3%

Goal in Both Halves64.3%

Draw or Away (X2)61.9%

Home or Draw (1X)61.2%

Draw No Bet - Away50.5%

Draw No Bet - Home49.5%

Away Win38.8%

Home Win38.0%

Draw23.1%

Exactly 1 Goal12.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.2%

Under 5.5 Goals88.6%

Over 1.5 Goals83.8%

Under 4.5 Goals76.8%

Over 2.5 Goals63.5%

2-4 Goals60.6%

Under 3.5 Goals58.7%

1-3 Goals54.9%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals42.4%

Over 3.5 Goals41.3%

4+ Goals41.3%

3-4 Goals40.3%

Under 2.5 Goals36.5%

1-2 Goals32.7%

Over 4.5 Goals23.2%

Exactly 3 Goals22.1%

Exactly 2 Goals20.3%

Under 1.5 Goals16.2%

Over 5.5 Goals11.4%

Under 0.5 Goals3.8%

Exactly 0 Goals3.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score80.7%

Home Team to Score80.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)64.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)35.2%

Away Clean Sheet19.7%

Home Clean Sheet19.3%

Away Win to Nil15.9%

Home Win to Nil15.5%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.580.7%

Home Over 0.580.3%

Away Over 1.548.9%

Home Over 1.548.4%

Home Exactly 132.0%

Away Exactly 131.7%

Away Exactly 226.1%

Home Exactly 226.0%

Away Over 2.522.8%

Away 3+ Goals22.8%

Home Over 2.522.4%

Home 3+ Goals22.4%

Home Exactly 019.7%

Away Exactly 019.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)92.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away92.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)92.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home92.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)81.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away81.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)80.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home80.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)61.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away61.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)61.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home61.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)38.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)38.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)19.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away19.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.3%

Away to win by 119.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.1%

Home to win by 119.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)19.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home19.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.5%

Away to win by 211.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw11.3%

Home to win by 211.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)8.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away8.0%

Away to win by 3+8.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)7.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home7.7%

Home to win by 3+7.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw5.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.554.7%

Away & Over 2.527.4%

Home & Over 2.526.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.526.4%

Away & BTTS23.0%

Home & BTTS22.5%

Draw & BTTS19.3%

Away & No BTTS15.9%

Home & No BTTS15.5%

Draw & Under 2.513.9%

Away & Under 2.511.4%

Home & Under 2.511.2%

BTTS & Under 2.510.2%

Draw & Over 2.59.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.577.1%

HT Under 1.556.7%

2nd Half More Goals45.5%

HT Over 1.543.3%

HT Draw37.2%

HT Away Win31.7%

1st Half More Goals31.7%

HT Home Win31.2%

HT Both Teams Score27.2%

HT/FT Away/Away23.4%

HT Under 0.522.9%

HT/FT Home/Home22.9%

Equal Goals Each Half22.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home2.8%

HT/FT Home/Away2.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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