UEFA Europa Conference League

FC Sion vs Ajax

Kick-off 19:15 · Thu, Aug 20

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

41% confidence

FC Sion 40.7% Draw 22.2% Ajax 37.1%

Over 2.5 - 78% BTTS - 77%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 7.3%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Ajax: 8 points versus 14 across the last 4 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 5.08 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.3%

Exact-score model probability

FC Sion

W D W D

Form 2-2-0 Goals 9:4 Scored/game 2.25 Conceded/game 1

Ajax

D D W W W W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 17:7 Scored/game 2.83 Conceded/game 1.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

FC Sion win40.7%

Draw22.2%

Ajax win37.1%

Over 1.5 goals92.4%

Over 2.5 goals77.6%

Over 3.5 goals58.5%

Both teams to score76.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

90.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

90.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)79.5%

Both Halves Over 0.575.3%

Goal in Both Halves75.3%

Home or Draw (1X)62.0%

Draw or Away (X2)58.4%

Draw No Bet - Home52.3%

Draw No Bet - Away47.7%

Home Win41.6%

Away Win37.9%

Draw20.4%

Exactly 1 Goal6.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.3%

Over 1.5 Goals91.5%

Over 2.5 Goals77.5%

Under 5.5 Goals77.1%

Under 4.5 Goals61.1%

Over 3.5 Goals58.4%

4+ Goals58.4%

2-4 Goals52.5%

Total Goals Odd50.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Under 3.5 Goals41.6%

1-3 Goals39.8%

Over 4.5 Goals38.9%

3-4 Goals38.6%

2-3 Goals33.0%

Over 5.5 Goals22.9%

Under 2.5 Goals22.5%

1-2 Goals20.8%

Exactly 3 Goals19.1%

Exactly 2 Goals14.0%

Under 1.5 Goals8.5%

Under 0.5 Goals1.7%

Exactly 0 Goals1.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score87.7%

Away Team to Score86.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)75.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)24.2%

Home Clean Sheet13.5%

Away Clean Sheet12.3%

Home Win to Nil11.9%

Away Win to Nil10.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.587.7%

Away Over 0.586.4%

Home Over 1.561.9%

Away Over 1.559.4%

Home Over 2.534.9%

Home 3+ Goals34.9%

Away Over 2.532.3%

Away 3+ Goals32.3%

Away Exactly 127.1%

Away Exactly 227.1%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 125.8%

Away Exactly 013.5%

Home Exactly 012.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)90.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home90.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)88.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away88.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)79.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home79.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)76.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away76.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)62.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home62.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)58.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away58.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)41.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)37.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)23.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home23.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)20.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away20.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.1%

Home to win by 118.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.3%

Away to win by 117.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw12.3%

Home to win by 212.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.2%

Away to win by 211.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)11.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home11.1%

Home to win by 3+11.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)9.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away9.4%

Away to win by 3+9.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)4.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home4.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.568.8%

Home & Over 2.534.4%

Away & Over 2.531.3%

Home & BTTS29.7%

Away & BTTS27.3%

Draw & BTTS18.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.515.5%

Home & No BTTS11.9%

Draw & Over 2.511.8%

Away & No BTTS10.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.7%

Draw & Under 2.58.6%

Home & Under 2.57.1%

BTTS & Under 2.57.0%

Away & Under 2.56.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.584.2%

HT Over 1.555.0%

2nd Half More Goals47.7%

HT Under 1.545.0%

HT Both Teams Score36.2%

HT Home Win35.0%

HT Away Win32.6%

HT Draw32.4%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT/FT Home/Home25.9%

HT/FT Away/Away23.4%

Equal Goals Each Half20.1%

HT Under 0.515.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away11.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.6%

HT/FT Away/Home3.7%

HT/FT Home/Away3.5%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners72.9%

Away Over 4.5 Corners68.0%

Away Most Corners66.0%

Over 8.5 Corners63.3%

Under 10.5 Corners61.9%

Over 9.5 Corners50.5%

Under 9.5 Corners49.5%

Over 10.5 Corners38.1%

Under 8.5 Corners36.7%

Home Over 4.5 Corners36.3%

Over 11.5 Corners27.1%

Home Most Corners22.9%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards89.8%

Under 4.5 Cards78.7%

Over 2.5 Cards61.3%

Under 3.5 Cards61.0%

Over 3.5 Cards39.0%

Under 2.5 Cards38.7%

Over 4.5 Cards21.3%

Over 0.5 Red Cards12.7%

Over 5.5 Cards10.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions