Germany · 2. Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth

Kick-off 12:30 · Sun, Aug 9

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

83% confidence

FC St. Pauli 5.4% Draw 12.1% SpVgg Greuther Fürth 82.5%

Over 2.5 - 75% BTTS - 52%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-3 at 10.3%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to SpVgg Greuther Fürth: 1 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.3%

Exact-score model probability

FC St. Pauli

L L L L D L

Form 0-1-5 Goals 4:15 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 2.5

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

W L W L D L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 8:6 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

FC St. Pauli win5.4%

Draw12.1%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth win82.5%

Over 1.5 goals90.8%

Over 2.5 goals74.7%

Over 3.5 goals54.7%

Both teams to score52.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

89.7%

Home or Away (12)

88.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

86.3%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)93.5%

Draw No Bet - Away93.3%

Home or Away (12)88.8%

Away Win82.8%

Both Halves Over 0.573.2%

Goal in Both Halves73.2%

Home or Draw (1X)16.7%

Draw10.7%

Exactly 1 Goal7.8%

Draw No Bet - Home6.7%

Home Win6.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.5%

Over 1.5 Goals89.7%

Under 5.5 Goals80.4%

Over 2.5 Goals74.4%

Under 4.5 Goals65.1%

2-4 Goals54.8%

Over 3.5 Goals54.4%

4+ Goals54.4%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Under 3.5 Goals45.6%

1-3 Goals43.1%

3-4 Goals39.5%

2-3 Goals35.3%

Over 4.5 Goals34.9%

Under 2.5 Goals25.6%

1-2 Goals23.1%

Exactly 3 Goals20.0%

Over 5.5 Goals19.6%

Exactly 2 Goals15.3%

Under 1.5 Goals10.3%

Under 0.5 Goals2.5%

Exactly 0 Goals2.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score95.2%

Home Team to Score53.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)51.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)48.7%

Away Clean Sheet45.9%

Away Win to Nil43.9%

Home Clean Sheet4.3%

Home Win to Nil2.3%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.595.2%

Away Over 1.581.5%

Away Over 2.560.2%

Away 3+ Goals60.2%

Home Over 0.553.6%

Home Exactly 045.9%

Home Exactly 135.5%

Away Exactly 221.4%

Home Over 1.518.1%

Home Exactly 213.7%

Away Exactly 113.6%

Home Over 2.54.4%

Home 3+ Goals4.4%

Away Exactly 04.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away97.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)93.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)93.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away93.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)86.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home86.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)82.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)73.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home73.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)65.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away65.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)55.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home55.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)44.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away44.4%

Away to win by 3+44.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)34.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home34.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)26.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away26.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw20.7%

Away to win by 220.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw18.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.7%

Away to win by 117.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)16.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home16.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)13.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away13.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw12.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw7.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)6.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)5.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away5.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw4.4%

Home to win by 14.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home1.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw1.3%

Home to win by 21.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.3%

Home to win by 3+0.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.566.7%

BTTS & Over 2.546.4%

Away & No BTTS43.9%

Away & BTTS38.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.527.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.520.3%

Away & Under 2.516.1%

Draw & BTTS8.7%

Draw & Under 2.56.9%

BTTS & Under 2.54.9%

Draw & Over 2.53.9%

Home & Over 2.53.8%

Home & BTTS3.6%

Home & No BTTS2.3%

Home & Under 2.52.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.582.8%

HT Away Win64.3%

HT/FT Away/Away61.3%

HT Over 1.552.5%

HT Under 1.547.5%

2nd Half More Goals47.3%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Draw26.8%

HT Both Teams Score22.2%

Equal Goals Each Half20.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away18.6%

HT Under 0.517.2%

HT Home Win9.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.9%

HT/FT Home/Away3.4%

HT/FT Home/Home3.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home2.3%

HT/FT Away/Home0.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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