Germany · 2. Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg

Kick-off 19:30 · Sat, Sep 12

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

79% confidence

FC St. Pauli 7.5% Draw 14.0% VfL Wolfsburg 78.5%

Over 2.5 - 75% BTTS - 57%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

91%

Away Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

79%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-2 at 11%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to VfL Wolfsburg: 2 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: FC St. Pauli 0 wins, 2 draws, VfL Wolfsburg 2 wins in the last 4 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11%

Exact-score model probability

FC St. Pauli

L D D L L L

Form 0-2-4 Goals 7:12 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 2

VfL Wolfsburg

W D L D W L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 5:4 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 0.67

Head to head · last 4

FC St. Pauli 0wins ·2 draws ·VfL Wolfsburg 2wins

FC St. Pauli 1-3 VfL WolfsburgMay 16, 2026

FC St. Pauli 1-2 VfL WolfsburgJan 14, 2026

FC St. Pauli 1-1 VfL WolfsburgMar 8, 2025

FC St. Pauli 0-0 VfL WolfsburgOct 26, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

FC St. Pauli win7.5%

Draw14.0%

VfL Wolfsburg win78.5%

Over 1.5 goals90.8%

Over 2.5 goals74.6%

Over 3.5 goals54.5%

Both teams to score57.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away Team to Score

91.5%

Away Over 0.5

91.5%

Draw or Away (X2)

89.0%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)89.0%

Draw No Bet - Away87.0%

Home or Away (12)83.7%

Away Win72.8%

Both Halves Over 0.565.1%

Goal in Both Halves65.1%

Home or Draw (1X)27.1%

Draw16.2%

Draw No Bet - Home13.0%

Exactly 1 Goal12.0%

Home Win10.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.3%

Under 5.5 Goals88.1%

Over 1.5 Goals84.3%

Under 4.5 Goals75.9%

Over 2.5 Goals64.4%

2-4 Goals60.3%

Under 3.5 Goals57.6%

1-3 Goals53.9%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals42.4%

4+ Goals42.4%

2-3 Goals41.9%

3-4 Goals40.4%

Under 2.5 Goals35.6%

1-2 Goals31.9%

Over 4.5 Goals24.1%

Exactly 3 Goals22.0%

Exactly 2 Goals19.9%

Under 1.5 Goals15.7%

Over 5.5 Goals11.9%

Under 0.5 Goals3.7%

Exactly 0 Goals3.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score91.5%

Home Team to Score57.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)52.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)47.6%

Away Clean Sheet42.7%

Away Win to Nil39.0%

Home Clean Sheet8.4%

Home Win to Nil4.8%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.591.5%

Away Over 1.570.6%

Home Over 0.557.2%

Away Over 2.544.8%

Away 3+ Goals44.8%

Home Exactly 042.7%

Home Exactly 136.3%

Away Exactly 225.8%

Home Over 1.520.9%

Away Exactly 120.9%

Home Exactly 215.4%

Away Exactly 08.4%

Home Over 2.55.5%

Home 3+ Goals5.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.1%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away96.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)93.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home93.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)89.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away89.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)85.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home85.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)72.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)70.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home70.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)50.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away50.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)49.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home49.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)29.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away29.5%

Away to win by 3+29.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)27.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home27.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw22.2%

Away to win by 122.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw21.1%

Away to win by 221.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw15.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)14.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away14.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)10.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw8.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw7.6%

Home to win by 17.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)6.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away6.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw3.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home3.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw2.5%

Home to win by 22.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away2.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.8%

Home to win by 3+0.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.552.8%

BTTS & Over 2.544.8%

Away & No BTTS39.0%

Away & BTTS33.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.527.9%

Away & Under 2.519.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.519.6%

Draw & BTTS12.6%

Draw & Under 2.511.2%

BTTS & Under 2.57.6%

Home & Over 2.56.5%

Home & BTTS6.1%

Draw & Over 2.55.1%

Home & No BTTS4.8%

Home & Under 2.54.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.577.6%

HT Under 1.555.9%

HT Away Win54.3%

HT/FT Away/Away50.0%

2nd Half More Goals45.6%

HT Over 1.544.1%

HT Draw33.0%

1st Half More Goals31.7%

Equal Goals Each Half22.6%

HT Under 0.522.4%

HT Both Teams Score21.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away19.6%

HT Home Win12.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.3%

HT/FT Home/Home5.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home4.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.5%

HT/FT Home/Away3.3%

HT/FT Away/Home0.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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