UEFA Europa Conference League

FC Thun vs Heart Of Midlothian

Kick-off 18:45 · Thu, Nov 5

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

75% confidence

FC Thun 74.7% Draw 11.6% Heart Of Midlothian 13.7%

Over 2.5 - 96% BTTS - 88%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

88%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

88%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-2 at 5.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Heart Of Midlothian: 5 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.1%

Exact-score model probability

FC Thun

D L L W L D

Form 1-2-3 Goals 10:16 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 2.67

Heart Of Midlothian

W D D D W L

Form 2-3-1 Goals 12:11 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

FC Thun win74.7%

Draw11.6%

Heart Of Midlothian win13.7%

Over 1.5 goals99.2%

Over 2.5 goals96.1%

Over 3.5 goals89.7%

Both teams to score88.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Over 1.5

89.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

89.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

89.5%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.592.7%

Goal in Both Halves92.7%

Home or Away (12)85.1%

Draw No Bet - Home84.4%

Home or Draw (1X)82.6%

Home Win71.8%

Draw or Away (X2)24.1%

Draw No Bet - Away15.6%

Away Win13.3%

Draw10.8%

Exactly 1 Goal0.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.8%

Over 1.5 Goals95.0%

Over 2.5 Goals92.2%

Over 3.5 Goals86.0%

4+ Goals86.0%

Over 4.5 Goals75.6%

Over 5.5 Goals61.8%

Total Goals Odd48.0%

Total Goals Even48.0%

Under 5.5 Goals38.2%

Under 4.5 Goals24.4%

2-4 Goals19.3%

3-4 Goals16.6%

Under 3.5 Goals14.0%

1-3 Goals9.8%

2-3 Goals9.0%

Under 2.5 Goals7.8%

Exactly 3 Goals6.2%

Under 1.5 Goals5.0%

Under 0.5 Goals4.2%

1-2 Goals3.6%

Exactly 2 Goals2.8%

Exactly 0 Goals0.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.8%

Away Team to Score85.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)84.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)15.8%

Home Clean Sheet10.7%

Home Win to Nil10.6%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil1.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.8%

Home Over 1.589.8%

Away Over 0.585.2%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 1.561.7%

Away Over 2.536.0%

Away 3+ Goals36.0%

Away Exactly 225.8%

Away Exactly 123.5%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Away Exactly 010.7%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)95.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)89.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home89.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)88.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)82.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home82.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)80.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away80.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)71.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)68.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away68.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)57.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home57.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)53.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away53.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)42.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home42.0%

Home to win by 3+42.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)38.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away38.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)27.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home27.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)24.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away24.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.7%

Home to win by 215.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)15.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home15.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.2%

Home to win by 114.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)13.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw11.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)7.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home7.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.9%

Away to win by 16.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)6.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away6.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.7%

Away to win by 23.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.7%

Away to win by 3+2.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.583.0%

Home & Over 2.570.0%

Home & BTTS61.3%

Away & Over 2.512.7%

Away & BTTS12.3%

Draw & BTTS10.7%

Home & No BTTS10.6%

Draw & Over 2.59.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.52.5%

Home & Under 2.51.8%

Draw & Under 2.51.3%

BTTS & Under 2.51.2%

Away & No BTTS1.0%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.595.1%

HT Over 1.580.2%

HT Home Win61.4%

HT/FT Home/Home55.8%

HT Both Teams Score54.4%

2nd Half More Goals52.3%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw20.9%

HT Under 1.519.8%

HT Away Win17.7%

Equal Goals Each Half15.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.6%

HT/FT Away/Away7.8%

HT/FT Away/Home6.3%

HT Under 0.54.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.5%

HT/FT Home/Away2.0%

Corners (12)

Away Over 4.5 Corners85.5%

Over 8.5 Corners83.1%

Away Most Corners75.5%

Over 9.5 Corners74.0%

Over 10.5 Corners63.1%

Over 11.5 Corners51.5%

Under 11.5 Corners48.5%

Home Over 4.5 Corners46.2%

Under 10.5 Corners36.9%

Under 9.5 Corners26.0%

Under 8.5 Corners16.9%

Home Most Corners16.1%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards82.3%

Under 5.5 Cards70.9%

Over 3.5 Cards65.2%

Under 4.5 Cards53.8%

Over 4.5 Cards46.2%

Under 3.5 Cards34.8%

Over 5.5 Cards29.1%

Over 0.5 Red Cards17.9%

Under 2.5 Cards17.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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