UEFA Europa Conference League

FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split

Kick-off 20:00 · Thu, Oct 22

📊 Our Prediction

Over 1.5 Goals

42% confidence

FC Thun 42.1% Draw 15.7% HNK Hajduk Split 42.2%

Over 2.5 - 98% BTTS - 95%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

93%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

84%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

Over 1.5 Goals is rated at 99.5% after combining both teams' recent goal output and defensive records.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to HNK Hajduk Split: 5 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Over 1.5 Goals

Over 1.5 Goals probability

99.5%

Chance of 2+ total goals

FC Thun high-scoring games

83.3%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

HNK Hajduk Split high-scoring games

66.7%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

FC Thun

D L L W L D

Form 1-2-3 Goals 10:16 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 2.67

HNK Hajduk Split

D W W L W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 14:8 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

FC Thun win42.1%

Draw15.7%

HNK Hajduk Split win42.2%

Over 1.5 goals99.5%

Over 2.5 goals97.5%

Over 3.5 goals93.0%

Both teams to score94.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

BTTS & Over 2.5

91.5%

Over 3.5 Goals

90.7%

4+ Goals

90.7%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.594.5%

Goal in Both Halves94.5%

Home or Away (12)82.5%

Home or Draw (1X)56.3%

Draw or Away (X2)56.3%

Draw No Bet - Home50.0%

Draw No Bet - Away50.0%

Away Win41.3%

Home Win41.2%

Draw15.1%

Exactly 1 Goal0.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.5%

Over 1.5 Goals97.0%

Over 2.5 Goals95.1%

Over 3.5 Goals90.7%

4+ Goals90.7%

Over 4.5 Goals82.6%

Over 5.5 Goals70.8%

Total Goals Odd48.8%

Total Goals Even48.8%

Under 5.5 Goals29.2%

Under 4.5 Goals17.4%

2-4 Goals14.4%

3-4 Goals12.5%

Under 3.5 Goals9.3%

1-3 Goals6.8%

2-3 Goals6.3%

Under 2.5 Goals4.9%

Exactly 3 Goals4.4%

Under 1.5 Goals3.0%

Under 0.5 Goals2.5%

1-2 Goals2.3%

Exactly 2 Goals1.8%

Exactly 0 Goals0.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

Away Team to Score94.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)92.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)7.6%

Home Clean Sheet2.6%

Away Clean Sheet2.6%

Home Win to Nil2.5%

Away Win to Nil2.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Away Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.585.5%

Away Over 1.585.5%

Home Over 2.568.3%

Away Over 2.568.3%

Home 3+ Goals68.3%

Away 3+ Goals68.3%

Home Exactly 217.2%

Away Exactly 217.2%

Home Exactly 19.5%

Away Exactly 19.5%

Home Exactly 02.6%

Away Exactly 02.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)93.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)93.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home93.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away93.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)89.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)89.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home89.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away89.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)81.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away81.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)81.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home81.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)70.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away70.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)70.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home70.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)56.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)56.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home56.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away56.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)41.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)41.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)27.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away27.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)27.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home27.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)16.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)16.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away16.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home16.1%

Home to win by 3+16.1%

Away to win by 3+16.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.0%

Home to win by 114.0%

Away to win by 114.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw11.2%

Home to win by 211.2%

Away to win by 211.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)8.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away8.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)8.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home8.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw7.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw4.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)3.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away3.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.591.5%

Away & Over 2.540.6%

Home & Over 2.540.5%

Home & BTTS38.7%

Away & BTTS38.7%

Draw & BTTS15.0%

Draw & Over 2.514.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.53.6%

Home & No BTTS2.5%

Away & No BTTS2.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.51.5%

Draw & Under 2.51.0%

BTTS & Under 2.50.9%

Home & Under 2.50.7%

Away & Under 2.50.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.596.2%

HT Over 1.583.8%

HT Both Teams Score64.9%

2nd Half More Goals53.1%

HT Home Win38.4%

HT Away Win38.4%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT/FT Away/Away27.8%

HT/FT Home/Home27.7%

HT Draw23.1%

HT Under 1.516.2%

Equal Goals Each Half14.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home9.2%

HT/FT Away/Home5.5%

HT/FT Home/Away5.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.8%

HT Under 0.53.8%

Corners (12)

Away Over 4.5 Corners71.5%

Over 8.5 Corners68.6%

Under 11.5 Corners67.8%

Away Most Corners66.2%

Over 9.5 Corners56.3%

Under 10.5 Corners56.2%

Over 10.5 Corners43.8%

Under 9.5 Corners43.7%

Home Over 4.5 Corners40.4%

Over 11.5 Corners32.2%

Under 8.5 Corners31.4%

Home Most Corners23.0%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards87.5%

Over 3.5 Cards73.5%

Under 5.5 Cards61.6%

Over 4.5 Cards56.0%

Under 4.5 Cards44.0%

Over 5.5 Cards38.4%

Under 3.5 Cards26.5%

Over 0.5 Red Cards20.0%

Under 2.5 Cards12.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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