UEFA Europa League

FC Thun vs Lech Poznan

Kick-off 19:00 · Thu, Aug 27

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

85% confidence

FC Thun 6.6% Draw 8.7% Lech Poznan 84.7%

Over 2.5 - 93% BTTS - 76%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

93%

Away Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

85%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-4 at 6.4%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Lech Poznan: 4 points versus 12 across the last 5 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 5.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-4

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.4%

Exact-score model probability

FC Thun

L L W L D

Form 1-1-3 Goals 8:14 Scored/game 1.6 Conceded/game 2.8

Lech Poznan

W W W L W

Form 4-0-1 Goals 17:4 Scored/game 3.4 Conceded/game 0.8

Head to head · last 1

FC Thun 0wins ·0 draws ·Lech Poznan 1wins

FC Thun 0-7 Lech PoznanAug 20, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

FC Thun win6.6%

Draw8.7%

Lech Poznan win84.7%

Over 1.5 goals98.4%

Over 2.5 goals93.4%

Over 3.5 goals84.0%

Both teams to score76.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away Over 1.5

89.9%

Both Halves Over 0.5

89.7%

Goal in Both Halves

89.7%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Away92.6%

Both Halves Over 0.589.7%

Goal in Both Halves89.7%

Draw or Away (X2)89.4%

Home or Away (12)88.0%

Away Win81.5%

Home or Draw (1X)14.5%

Draw7.9%

Draw No Bet - Home7.4%

Home Win6.5%

Exactly 1 Goal1.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.7%

Over 1.5 Goals94.2%

Over 2.5 Goals89.6%

Over 3.5 Goals80.6%

4+ Goals80.6%

Over 4.5 Goals67.1%

Over 5.5 Goals51.0%

Under 5.5 Goals49.0%

Total Goals Even48.0%

Total Goals Odd47.9%

Under 4.5 Goals32.9%

2-4 Goals27.1%

3-4 Goals22.6%

Under 3.5 Goals19.4%

1-3 Goals15.1%

2-3 Goals13.6%

Under 2.5 Goals10.4%

Exactly 3 Goals9.0%

1-2 Goals6.1%

Under 1.5 Goals5.8%

Exactly 2 Goals4.5%

Under 0.5 Goals4.3%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score94.9%

Home Team to Score73.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)73.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)26.9%

Away Clean Sheet22.0%

Away Win to Nil21.8%

Home Clean Sheet1.1%

Home Win to Nil0.9%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.594.9%

Away Over 1.589.9%

Away Over 2.578.6%

Away 3+ Goals78.6%

Home Over 0.573.9%

Home Over 1.541.5%

Home Exactly 132.4%

Home Exactly 223.9%

Home Exactly 022.0%

Home Over 2.517.7%

Home 3+ Goals17.7%

Away Exactly 211.2%

Away Exactly 15.0%

Away Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away95.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)93.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away93.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)89.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away89.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)84.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)81.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)73.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home73.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)69.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away69.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)59.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home59.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)53.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away53.3%

Away to win by 3+53.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)42.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home42.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)36.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away36.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)26.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home26.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)22.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away22.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw16.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw15.8%

Away to win by 215.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)14.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home14.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw14.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.4%

Away to win by 112.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)11.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away11.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw10.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)6.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw4.1%

Home to win by 14.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home2.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw1.7%

Home to win by 21.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.8%

Home to win by 3+0.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.577.8%

BTTS & Over 2.571.4%

Away & BTTS59.7%

Away & No BTTS21.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.518.2%

Draw & BTTS7.7%

Draw & Over 2.56.0%

Home & Over 2.55.9%

Home & BTTS5.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.6%

Away & Under 2.53.7%

Draw & Under 2.51.9%

BTTS & Under 2.51.7%

Home & No BTTS0.9%

Home & Under 2.50.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.2%

HT Over 1.574.9%

HT Away Win69.4%

HT/FT Away/Away66.0%

2nd Half More Goals51.2%

HT Both Teams Score42.0%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.525.1%

HT Draw19.5%

Equal Goals Each Half16.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.4%

HT Home Win11.1%

HT Under 0.56.8%

HT/FT Home/Away5.0%

HT/FT Home/Home3.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home2.0%

HT/FT Away/Home0.9%

Corners (12)

Away Over 4.5 Corners85.5%

Over 8.5 Corners83.4%

Away Most Corners75.2%

Over 9.5 Corners74.3%

Over 10.5 Corners63.5%

Over 11.5 Corners51.9%

Under 11.5 Corners48.1%

Home Over 4.5 Corners46.8%

Under 10.5 Corners36.5%

Under 9.5 Corners25.7%

Under 8.5 Corners16.6%

Home Most Corners16.4%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards88.9%

Over 3.5 Cards75.8%

Over 4.5 Cards58.8%

Under 5.5 Cards58.7%

Over 5.5 Cards41.3%

Under 4.5 Cards41.2%

Under 3.5 Cards24.2%

Over 0.5 Red Cards20.7%

Under 2.5 Cards11.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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