UEFA Europa League

FC Thun vs Vikingur Reykjavik

Full time · 3:0

📊 Our Prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

84% confidence

FC Thun 32.0% Draw 22.0% Vikingur Reykjavik 46.0%

Over 2.5 - 84% BTTS - 82%

✓ Pick was correct (3:0)

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

High xG values

⚠️ AIs disagree

64%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score (GG)

High BTTS rate

82%

Away Win

Vikingur's strong away form

75%

🤖 AI Match Analysis

FC Thun and Vikingur Reykjavik have a significant form gap, with Vikingur showing stronger recent performances. FC Thun's attacking threat is moderate, while Vikingur's defensive strength is a concern. The absence of key players could impact FC Thun's performance. Given the high xG values and BTTS rate, 5 Goals is the strongest pick.

💡

Top Tip

Over 2

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

Over 2.5 Goals is rated at 84.2% after combining both teams' recent goal output and defensive records.

High xG values

Numbers behind this Over 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5 Goals probability

84.2%

Chance of 3+ total goals

FC Thun high-scoring games

50%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

Vikingur Reykjavik high-scoring games

50%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

FC Thun

L D

Form 0-1-1 Goals 3:4 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 2

Vikingur Reykjavik

L W D W

Form 2-1-1 Goals 5:5 Scored/game 1.25 Conceded/game 1.25

📈 Probability Breakdown

FC Thun win32.0%

Draw22.0%

Vikingur Reykjavik win46.0%

Over 1.5 goals95.3%

Over 2.5 goals84.2%

Over 3.5 goals68.3%

Both teams to score81.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away Team to Score

91.6%

Away Over 0.5

91.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

91.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)81.0%

Both Halves Over 0.580.9%

Goal in Both Halves80.9%

Draw or Away (X2)65.5%

Draw No Bet - Away57.6%

Home or Draw (1X)53.2%

Away Win46.6%

Draw No Bet - Home42.4%

Home Win34.4%

Draw18.9%

Exactly 1 Goal4.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.9%

Over 1.5 Goals94.5%

Over 2.5 Goals84.2%

Over 3.5 Goals68.2%

4+ Goals68.2%

Under 5.5 Goals67.8%

Under 4.5 Goals50.4%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Over 4.5 Goals49.6%

2-4 Goals44.9%

3-4 Goals34.6%

Over 5.5 Goals32.2%

Under 3.5 Goals31.8%

1-3 Goals30.7%

2-3 Goals26.3%

Exactly 3 Goals16.0%

Under 2.5 Goals15.8%

1-2 Goals14.7%

Exactly 2 Goals10.3%

Under 1.5 Goals5.5%

Under 0.5 Goals1.1%

Exactly 0 Goals1.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score91.6%

Home Team to Score88.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)81.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)19.0%

Away Clean Sheet11.6%

Away Win to Nil10.6%

Home Clean Sheet8.2%

Home Win to Nil7.3%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.591.6%

Home Over 0.588.3%

Away Over 1.571.1%

Home Over 1.563.3%

Away Over 2.545.5%

Away 3+ Goals45.5%

Home Over 2.536.5%

Home 3+ Goals36.5%

Home Exactly 226.9%

Away Exactly 225.6%

Home Exactly 124.9%

Away Exactly 120.5%

Home Exactly 011.6%

Away Exactly 08.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)93.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home93.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)91.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away91.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)84.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home84.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)81.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away81.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)71.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home71.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)65.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away65.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)53.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home53.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)46.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)34.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)28.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away28.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)18.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home18.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw18.0%

Away to win by 118.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.5%

Home to win by 115.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)15.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away15.1%

Away to win by 3+15.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw13.5%

Away to win by 213.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw10.1%

Home to win by 210.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)8.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home8.8%

Home to win by 3+8.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw8.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)6.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away6.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw5.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw4.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away2.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.575.9%

Away & Over 2.541.3%

Away & BTTS36.0%

Home & Over 2.530.1%

Home & BTTS27.1%

Draw & BTTS17.9%

Draw & Over 2.512.8%

Away & No BTTS10.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.510.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.3%

Home & No BTTS7.3%

Draw & Under 2.56.1%

Away & Under 2.55.3%

BTTS & Under 2.55.1%

Home & Under 2.54.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.7%

HT Over 1.561.9%

2nd Half More Goals49.0%

HT Both Teams Score41.9%

HT Away Win39.0%

HT Under 1.538.1%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Home Win31.1%

HT/FT Away/Away30.0%

HT Draw29.9%

HT/FT Home/Home21.2%

Equal Goals Each Half18.7%

HT Under 0.512.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home9.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Away4.4%

HT/FT Away/Home3.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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