UEFA Champions League

Fenerbahçe vs Lyon

Kick-off 20:00 · Tue, Aug 18

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

76% confidence

Fenerbahçe 76.2% Draw 14.0% Lyon 9.8%

Over 2.5 - 82% BTTS - 68%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 8%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Fenerbahçe: 11 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Fenerbahçe

L W W D W D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 9:6 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1

Lyon

W L L L W W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 12:12 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 2

📈 Probability Breakdown

Fenerbahçe win76.2%

Draw14.0%

Lyon win9.8%

Over 1.5 goals94.1%

Over 2.5 goals81.7%

Over 3.5 goals64.3%

Both teams to score67.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

89.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

89.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

89.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)89.0%

Draw No Bet - Home88.0%

Home or Away (12)86.7%

Both Halves Over 0.578.8%

Goal in Both Halves78.8%

Home Win76.3%

Draw or Away (X2)23.1%

Draw12.7%

Draw No Bet - Away12.0%

Away Win10.4%

Exactly 1 Goal5.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.2%

Over 1.5 Goals92.9%

Over 2.5 Goals81.2%

Under 5.5 Goals72.1%

Over 3.5 Goals63.9%

4+ Goals63.9%

Under 4.5 Goals55.2%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Total Goals Even49.7%

2-4 Goals48.1%

Over 4.5 Goals44.8%

3-4 Goals36.4%

Under 3.5 Goals36.1%

1-3 Goals34.2%

2-3 Goals29.0%

Over 5.5 Goals27.9%

Under 2.5 Goals18.8%

Exactly 3 Goals17.3%

1-2 Goals17.0%

Exactly 2 Goals11.7%

Under 1.5 Goals7.1%

Under 0.5 Goals1.8%

Exactly 0 Goals1.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.4%

Away Team to Score69.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)66.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)33.4%

Home Clean Sheet30.1%

Home Win to Nil28.9%

Away Clean Sheet3.9%

Away Win to Nil2.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.4%

Home Over 1.582.7%

Away Over 0.569.3%

Home Over 2.562.1%

Home 3+ Goals62.1%

Away Exactly 136.0%

Away Over 1.533.4%

Away Exactly 030.1%

Away Exactly 221.5%

Home Exactly 220.6%

Home Exactly 112.7%

Away Over 2.511.9%

Away 3+ Goals11.9%

Home Exactly 03.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)89.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home89.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)88.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away88.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)76.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away76.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)76.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)60.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away60.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)58.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home58.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)41.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away41.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)39.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home39.0%

Home to win by 3+39.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)23.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away23.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)22.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home22.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.3%

Home to win by 219.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.0%

Home to win by 118.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)11.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home11.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw11.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)10.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.7%

Away to win by 16.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.6%

Away to win by 22.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.1%

Away to win by 3+1.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.566.2%

BTTS & Over 2.561.9%

Home & BTTS47.4%

Home & No BTTS28.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.519.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.513.6%

Draw & BTTS11.5%

Home & Under 2.510.1%

Away & Over 2.58.1%

Away & BTTS7.6%

Draw & Over 2.56.9%

Draw & Under 2.55.8%

BTTS & Under 2.54.6%

Away & No BTTS2.7%

Away & Under 2.52.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.4%

HT Home Win59.8%

HT Over 1.559.2%

HT/FT Home/Home55.3%

2nd Half More Goals48.5%

HT Under 1.540.8%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Both Teams Score31.9%

HT Draw26.6%

Equal Goals Each Half19.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.1%

HT Away Win13.6%

HT Under 0.513.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.9%

HT/FT Away/Away5.8%

HT/FT Away/Home4.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Home/Away1.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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