UEFA Champions League

Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz

Kick-off 19:00 · Wed, Aug 5

📊 Our Prediction

Away Win

91% confidence

Fenerbahçe 2.0% Draw 7.0% Sturm Graz 91.0%

Over 2.5 - 78% BTTS - 40%

🎯 Best Pick

Away Win

Strong away form

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 12%

⚠️ AIs disagree

68%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

High scoring potential

78%

Away -0.5 Handicap

Dominant away team

75%

🤖 AI Match Analysis

Fenerbahçe faces a tough test against Sturm Graz, with the away team showing strong form. Sturm Graz has a high scoring potential, with an average of 3 goals per game. The home team's defense may struggle to contain them. With no previous head-to-head meetings, the away team's recent performances make them favorites.

💡

Top Tip

Back Sturm Graz to win, given their strong away record and Fenerbahçe's potential defensive weaknesses

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-3 at 12.6%, based on the goal model.

Strong away form

Numbers behind this Away Win

Most likely score

0-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12.6%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

12%

Market does not fully agree

Fenerbahçe

D W D W W

Form 3-2-0 Goals 11:5 Scored/game 2.2 Conceded/game 1

Sturm Graz

W W

Form 2-0-0 Goals 6:0 Scored/game 3 Conceded/game 0

📈 Probability Breakdown

Fenerbahçe win2.0%

Draw7.0%

Sturm Graz win91.0%

Over 1.5 goals92.0%

Over 2.5 goals77.9%

Over 3.5 goals58.6%

Both teams to score40.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

90.5%

Away Win

90.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)

90.0%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Away97.4%

Draw or Away (X2)96.4%

Home or Away (12)92.4%

Away Win90.0%

Both Halves Over 0.575.6%

Goal in Both Halves75.6%

Home or Draw (1X)8.9%

Exactly 1 Goal6.7%

Draw6.4%

Draw No Bet - Home2.6%

Home Win2.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.2%

Over 1.5 Goals90.5%

Under 5.5 Goals77.7%

Over 2.5 Goals76.8%

Under 4.5 Goals61.6%

Over 3.5 Goals57.9%

4+ Goals57.9%

2-4 Goals52.2%

Total Goals Even49.5%

Total Goals Odd49.3%

Under 3.5 Goals42.1%

1-3 Goals39.3%

Over 4.5 Goals38.4%

3-4 Goals38.4%

2-3 Goals32.7%

Under 2.5 Goals23.2%

Over 5.5 Goals22.3%

1-2 Goals20.4%

Exactly 3 Goals18.9%

Exactly 2 Goals13.8%

Under 1.5 Goals9.5%

Under 0.5 Goals2.8%

Exactly 0 Goals1.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score96.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)60.8%

Away Clean Sheet58.5%

Away Win to Nil56.9%

Home Team to Score40.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)39.2%

Home Clean Sheet2.7%

Home Win to Nil1.1%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.596.1%

Away Over 1.586.3%

Away Over 2.568.6%

Away 3+ Goals68.6%

Home Exactly 058.5%

Home Over 0.540.3%

Home Exactly 130.7%

Away Exactly 217.7%

Away Exactly 19.8%

Home Over 1.59.6%

Home Exactly 28.0%

Away Exactly 02.7%

Home Over 2.51.6%

Home 3+ Goals1.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away98.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)96.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away96.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)90.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)88.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)77.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home77.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)76.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away76.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)60.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home60.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)57.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away57.8%

Away to win by 3+57.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)41.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home41.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)38.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away38.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)22.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home22.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)21.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away21.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw19.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw18.8%

Away to win by 218.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw16.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.3%

Away to win by 113.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw11.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)10.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away10.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)8.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home8.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw1.9%

Home to win by 11.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home0.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw0.4%

Home to win by 20.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.1%

Home to win by 3+0.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.573.7%

Away & No BTTS56.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.540.6%

BTTS & Over 2.536.1%

Away & BTTS33.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.519.0%

Away & Under 2.516.3%

Draw & BTTS4.8%

Draw & Under 2.54.7%

BTTS & Under 2.53.1%

Draw & Over 2.51.8%

Home & Over 2.51.3%

Home & BTTS1.3%

Home & Under 2.51.1%

Home & No BTTS1.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.584.4%

HT Away Win72.8%

HT/FT Away/Away71.3%

HT Over 1.555.4%

2nd Half More Goals47.8%

HT Under 1.544.6%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw22.2%

Equal Goals Each Half20.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away17.4%

HT Both Teams Score16.8%

HT Under 0.515.6%

HT Home Win5.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Home/Away2.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.3%

HT/FT Home/Home1.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home1.0%

HT/FT Away/Home0.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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