Netherlands · Eredivisie

Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar

Kick-off 17:45 · Sat, Oct 10

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

57% confidence

Feyenoord 56.7% Draw 23.4% AZ Alkmaar 19.9%

Over 2.5 - 96% BTTS - 93%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

85%

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

80%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 6.3%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to AZ Alkmaar: 13 points versus 16 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 6.66 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.3%

Exact-score model probability

Feyenoord

W W L W D W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 23:10 Scored/game 3.83 Conceded/game 1.67

AZ Alkmaar

W D W W W W

Form 5-1-0 Goals 17:6 Scored/game 2.83 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 5

Feyenoord 3wins ·2 draws ·AZ Alkmaar 0wins

Feyenoord 1-1 AZ AlkmaarMay 10, 2026

Feyenoord 3-3 AZ AlkmaarSep 21, 2025

Feyenoord 1-0 AZ AlkmaarApr 5, 2025

Feyenoord 3-2 AZ AlkmaarNov 2, 2024

Feyenoord 1-0 AZ AlkmaarFeb 4, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Feyenoord win56.7%

Draw23.4%

AZ Alkmaar win19.9%

Over 1.5 goals85.1%

Over 2.5 goals95.6%

Over 3.5 goals41.5%

Both teams to score92.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

92.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

92.0%

Away Team to Score

90.8%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.584.9%

Goal in Both Halves84.9%

Home or Away (12)81.8%

Home or Draw (1X)64.4%

Draw No Bet - Home56.8%

Draw or Away (X2)53.2%

Home Win46.5%

Draw No Bet - Away43.2%

Away Win35.3%

Draw17.9%

Exactly 1 Goal3.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.1%

Over 1.5 Goals96.2%

Over 2.5 Goals88.5%

Over 3.5 Goals75.4%

4+ Goals75.4%

Under 5.5 Goals59.1%

Over 4.5 Goals58.4%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 4.5 Goals41.6%

Over 5.5 Goals40.9%

2-4 Goals37.8%

3-4 Goals30.1%

Under 3.5 Goals24.6%

1-3 Goals23.8%

2-3 Goals20.8%

Exactly 3 Goals13.2%

Under 2.5 Goals11.5%

1-2 Goals10.6%

Exactly 2 Goals7.6%

Under 1.5 Goals3.8%

Under 0.5 Goals0.9%

Exactly 0 Goals0.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score93.3%

Away Team to Score90.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)84.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)15.1%

Home Clean Sheet8.9%

Home Win to Nil8.4%

Away Clean Sheet6.4%

Away Win to Nil5.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.593.3%

Away Over 0.590.8%

Home Over 1.575.7%

Away Over 1.569.2%

Home Over 2.551.5%

Home 3+ Goals51.5%

Away Over 2.543.2%

Away 3+ Goals43.2%

Away Exactly 226.0%

Home Exactly 224.2%

Away Exactly 121.5%

Home Exactly 117.6%

Away Exactly 08.9%

Home Exactly 06.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)92.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away92.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)89.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home89.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)83.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away83.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)79.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home79.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)70.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away70.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)64.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home64.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)53.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away53.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)46.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)35.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)29.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home29.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)20.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away20.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.1%

Home to win by 117.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)16.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home16.2%

Home to win by 3+16.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.0%

Away to win by 115.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.2%

Home to win by 213.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw10.2%

Away to win by 210.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)10.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away10.0%

Away to win by 3+10.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)7.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home7.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.5%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.581.1%

Home & Over 2.542.8%

Home & BTTS38.1%

Away & Over 2.532.3%

Away & BTTS29.5%

Draw & BTTS17.3%

Draw & Over 2.513.5%

Home & No BTTS8.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.57.4%

Away & No BTTS5.8%

Draw & Under 2.54.4%

BTTS & Under 2.53.8%

Home & Under 2.53.7%

Away & Under 2.53.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.2%

HT Over 1.567.4%

2nd Half More Goals49.9%

HT Both Teams Score47.0%

HT Home Win39.6%

HT Under 1.532.6%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Away Win32.3%

HT/FT Home/Home30.2%

HT Draw28.1%

HT/FT Away/Away22.1%

Equal Goals Each Half17.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.7%

HT Under 0.59.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Away/Home4.8%

HT/FT Home/Away3.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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