Italy · Serie A

Fiorentina vs Atalanta

Kick-off 20:45 · Thu, Oct 29

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

45% confidence

Fiorentina 30.0% Draw 25.1% Atalanta 44.9%

Over 2.5 - 81% BTTS - 79%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

81%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

79%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 7.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.33 goals scored per match.

Head-to-head record: Fiorentina 2 wins, 1 draws, Atalanta 2 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.7%

Exact-score model probability

Fiorentina

L L L D W L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 9:12 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 2

Atalanta

D L W L L L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 11:14 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 2.33

Head to head · last 5

Fiorentina 2wins ·1 draws ·Atalanta 2wins

Fiorentina 1-1 AtalantaMay 22, 2026

Fiorentina 0-2 AtalantaNov 30, 2025

Fiorentina 1-0 AtalantaMar 30, 2025

Fiorentina 2-3 AtalantaSep 15, 2024

Fiorentina 3-2 AtalantaJun 2, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Fiorentina win30.0%

Draw25.1%

Atalanta win44.9%

Over 1.5 goals76.7%

Over 2.5 goals81.3%

Over 3.5 goals30.5%

Both teams to score79.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

90.9%

Away Team to Score

88.2%

Away Over 0.5

88.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)79.5%

Both Halves Over 0.574.4%

Goal in Both Halves74.4%

Draw or Away (X2)65.4%

Draw No Bet - Away56.5%

Home or Draw (1X)55.1%

Away Win44.9%

Draw No Bet - Home43.5%

Home Win34.6%

Draw20.5%

Exactly 1 Goal7.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.1%

Over 1.5 Goals90.9%

Under 5.5 Goals78.3%

Over 2.5 Goals76.4%

Under 4.5 Goals62.6%

Over 3.5 Goals57.0%

4+ Goals57.0%

2-4 Goals53.5%

Total Goals Odd50.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Under 3.5 Goals43.0%

1-3 Goals41.2%

3-4 Goals39.0%

Over 4.5 Goals37.4%

2-3 Goals34.0%

Under 2.5 Goals23.6%

Over 5.5 Goals21.7%

1-2 Goals21.7%

Exactly 3 Goals19.4%

Exactly 2 Goals14.5%

Under 1.5 Goals9.1%

Under 0.5 Goals1.9%

Exactly 0 Goals1.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score88.2%

Home Team to Score84.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)74.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)25.3%

Away Clean Sheet15.3%

Away Win to Nil13.5%

Home Clean Sheet11.7%

Home Win to Nil9.9%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.588.2%

Home Over 0.584.6%

Away Over 1.563.1%

Home Over 1.555.9%

Away Over 2.536.2%

Away 3+ Goals36.2%

Home Over 2.528.9%

Home 3+ Goals28.9%

Home Exactly 128.7%

Home Exactly 226.9%

Away Exactly 226.9%

Away Exactly 125.1%

Home Exactly 015.3%

Away Exactly 011.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)94.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home94.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)92.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away92.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)87.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home87.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)81.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away81.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)74.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home74.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)65.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away65.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)55.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home55.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)44.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)34.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)25.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away25.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw18.9%

Away to win by 118.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)18.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home18.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.6%

Home to win by 116.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw13.3%

Away to win by 213.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)12.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away12.6%

Away to win by 3+12.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw10.2%

Home to win by 210.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)7.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home7.8%

Home to win by 3+7.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw7.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away5.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw5.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.567.5%

Away & Over 2.536.9%

Away & BTTS31.3%

Home & Over 2.528.1%

Home & BTTS24.7%

Draw & BTTS18.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.516.3%

Away & No BTTS13.5%

Draw & Over 2.511.5%

Home & No BTTS9.9%

Draw & Under 2.59.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.9%

Away & Under 2.58.0%

BTTS & Under 2.57.2%

Home & Under 2.56.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.583.6%

HT Over 1.554.0%

2nd Half More Goals47.5%

HT Under 1.546.0%

HT Away Win36.9%

HT Both Teams Score35.3%

HT Draw32.7%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Home Win30.4%

HT/FT Away/Away28.2%

HT/FT Home/Home21.0%

Equal Goals Each Half20.3%

HT Under 0.516.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home10.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Away3.8%

HT/FT Away/Home3.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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