Italy · Serie A

Fiorentina vs Como

Kick-off 14:00 · Sun, Oct 18

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

51% confidence

Fiorentina 23.4% Draw 25.7% Como 50.9%

Over 2.5 - 82% BTTS - 66%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

82%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

77%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

66%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 9.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Como: 4 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.1%

Exact-score model probability

Fiorentina

L D W L L L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 7:14 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 2.33

Como

L D L W W W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 12:8 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 4

Fiorentina 2wins ·0 draws ·Como 2wins

Fiorentina 2-1 ComoFeb 14, 2026

Fiorentina 1-2 ComoSep 21, 2025

Fiorentina 0-2 ComoFeb 16, 2025

Fiorentina 2-0 ComoNov 24, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Fiorentina win23.4%

Draw25.7%

Como win50.9%

Over 1.5 goals73.3%

Over 2.5 goals82.1%

Over 3.5 goals26.1%

Both teams to score65.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

88.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

86.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home

86.0%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)84.9%

Home or Away (12)83.1%

Draw No Bet - Away82.0%

Both Halves Over 0.571.5%

Goal in Both Halves71.5%

Away Win68.1%

Home or Draw (1X)31.8%

Draw No Bet - Home18.0%

Draw16.8%

Home Win15.0%

Exactly 1 Goal8.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.6%

Over 1.5 Goals88.9%

Under 5.5 Goals82.0%

Over 2.5 Goals72.6%

Under 4.5 Goals67.3%

2-4 Goals56.3%

Over 3.5 Goals52.1%

4+ Goals52.1%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals47.9%

1-3 Goals45.5%

3-4 Goals40.0%

2-3 Goals36.9%

Over 4.5 Goals32.7%

Under 2.5 Goals27.4%

1-2 Goals24.9%

Exactly 3 Goals20.5%

Over 5.5 Goals18.0%

Exactly 2 Goals16.3%

Under 1.5 Goals11.1%

Under 0.5 Goals2.4%

Exactly 0 Goals2.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score92.5%

Home Team to Score68.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)63.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)36.2%

Away Clean Sheet31.0%

Away Win to Nil28.7%

Home Clean Sheet7.4%

Home Win to Nil5.1%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.592.5%

Away Over 1.573.3%

Home Over 0.568.9%

Away Over 2.548.2%

Away 3+ Goals48.2%

Home Exactly 136.3%

Home Over 1.532.6%

Home Exactly 031.0%

Away Exactly 225.1%

Home Exactly 221.2%

Away Exactly 119.2%

Home Over 2.511.4%

Home 3+ Goals11.4%

Away Exactly 07.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.2%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)94.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away94.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)93.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home93.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)86.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home86.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)84.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away84.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)72.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home72.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)68.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)52.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home52.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)47.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away47.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)31.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home31.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)27.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away27.6%

Away to win by 3+27.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw21.1%

Away to win by 121.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw19.4%

Away to win by 219.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)15.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)13.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw13.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away13.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw9.4%

Home to win by 19.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw7.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)5.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away5.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)5.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home5.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw3.9%

Home to win by 23.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw3.8%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away2.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.6%

Home to win by 3+1.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.556.8%

Away & Over 2.554.3%

Away & BTTS39.4%

Away & No BTTS28.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.520.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.515.8%

Draw & BTTS14.5%

Away & Under 2.513.7%

Home & Over 2.510.8%

Home & BTTS9.9%

Draw & Under 2.59.3%

Draw & Over 2.57.5%

BTTS & Under 2.57.0%

Home & No BTTS5.1%

Home & Under 2.54.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.581.7%

HT Away Win52.0%

HT Over 1.550.7%

HT Under 1.549.3%

2nd Half More Goals46.9%

HT/FT Away/Away46.5%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Draw31.4%

HT Both Teams Score28.3%

Equal Goals Each Half21.0%

HT Under 0.518.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away17.7%

HT Home Win16.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.5%

HT/FT Home/Home8.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home5.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Away4.1%

HT/FT Away/Home1.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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