Italy · Serie A

Fiorentina vs Frosinone

Kick-off 17:30 · Sat, Aug 29

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

53% confidence

Fiorentina 53.3% Draw 27.4% Frosinone 19.3%

Over 2.5 - 12% BTTS - 20%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

81%

No Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

80%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 15.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Frosinone: 6 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

15.5%

Exact-score model probability

Fiorentina

L D W D L D

Form 1-3-2 Goals 3:9 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 1.5

Frosinone

L W W L W L

Form 3-0-3 Goals 7:7 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 2

Fiorentina 1wins ·1 draws ·Frosinone 0wins

Fiorentina 5-1 FrosinoneFeb 11, 2024

Fiorentina 1-1 FrosinoneSep 28, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Fiorentina win53.3%

Draw27.4%

Frosinone win19.3%

Over 1.5 goals64.5%

Over 2.5 goals11.5%

Over 3.5 goals17.9%

Both teams to score20.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

91.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

91.3%

Over 0.5 Goals

88.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)77.2%

Home or Away (12)71.9%

Draw No Bet - Home68.4%

Draw or Away (X2)50.8%

Home Win49.2%

Both Halves Over 0.543.3%

Goal in Both Halves43.3%

Draw No Bet - Away31.6%

Draw28.1%

Exactly 1 Goal24.9%

Away Win22.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals97.7%

Under 4.5 Goals93.1%

Over 0.5 Goals88.5%

Under 3.5 Goals82.6%

1-3 Goals71.2%

Over 1.5 Goals63.7%

Under 2.5 Goals63.2%

2-4 Goals56.8%

1-2 Goals51.8%

Total Goals Even50.7%

Total Goals Odd49.3%

2-3 Goals46.3%

Over 2.5 Goals36.8%

Under 1.5 Goals36.3%

3-4 Goals29.9%

Exactly 2 Goals26.9%

Exactly 3 Goals19.4%

Over 3.5 Goals17.4%

4+ Goals17.4%

Under 0.5 Goals11.5%

Exactly 0 Goals11.5%

Over 4.5 Goals6.9%

Over 5.5 Goals2.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score74.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)58.7%

Away Team to Score55.9%

Home Clean Sheet44.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)41.3%

Home Win to Nil32.6%

Away Clean Sheet26.0%

Away Win to Nil14.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.574.0%

Away Over 0.555.9%

Away Exactly 044.1%

Home Over 1.538.9%

Away Exactly 136.1%

Home Exactly 135.0%

Home Exactly 026.0%

Home Exactly 223.6%

Away Over 1.519.8%

Home Over 2.515.4%

Home 3+ Goals15.4%

Away Exactly 214.8%

Away Over 2.55.0%

Away 3+ Goals5.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)91.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away91.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)77.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home77.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)76.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away76.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)50.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away50.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)49.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw25.7%

Home to win by 125.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)23.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home23.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)22.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.6%

Away to win by 115.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.8%

Home to win by 214.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)8.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home8.7%

Home to win by 3+8.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.5%

Away to win by 25.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.7%

Away to win by 3+1.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.550.6%

Home & No BTTS32.6%

BTTS & Over 2.528.7%

Home & Under 2.525.9%

Draw & Under 2.524.1%

Home & Over 2.523.3%

Draw & BTTS16.6%

Home & BTTS16.5%

Away & No BTTS14.5%

Away & Under 2.513.2%

BTTS & Under 2.512.6%

Away & Over 2.59.5%

Away & BTTS8.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.1%

Draw & Over 2.53.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.574.5%

HT Over 0.562.2%

HT Draw46.7%

2nd Half More Goals40.9%

HT Under 0.537.8%

HT Home Win34.7%

1st Half More Goals29.9%

HT/FT Home/Home29.3%

Equal Goals Each Half29.2%

HT Over 1.525.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw19.3%

HT Away Win18.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.0%

HT Both Teams Score14.0%

HT/FT Away/Away12.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Away/Home1.9%

HT/FT Home/Away1.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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