Italy · Serie A

Fiorentina vs Napoli

Kick-off 11:30 · Sun, Sep 20

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

49% confidence

Fiorentina 24.9% Draw 25.9% Napoli 49.3%

Over 2.5 - 56% BTTS - 41%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

83%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-2 at 11.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Napoli: 7 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Fiorentina 0 wins, 1 draws, Napoli 4 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.4%

Exact-score model probability

Fiorentina

W L L L D W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 8:12 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 2

Napoli

W L L L W W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 7:6 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 5

Fiorentina 0wins ·1 draws ·Napoli 4wins

Fiorentina 1-2 NapoliJan 31, 2026

Fiorentina 1-3 NapoliSep 13, 2025

Fiorentina 1-2 NapoliMar 9, 2025

Fiorentina 0-3 NapoliJan 4, 2025

Fiorentina 2-2 NapoliMay 17, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Fiorentina win24.9%

Draw25.9%

Napoli win49.3%

Over 1.5 goals71.5%

Over 2.5 goals56.0%

Over 3.5 goals24.5%

Both teams to score40.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

90.3%

Away Team to Score

89.8%

Away Over 0.5

89.8%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)87.6%

Draw No Bet - Away85.0%

Home or Away (12)82.1%

Away Win69.8%

Both Halves Over 0.562.0%

Goal in Both Halves62.0%

Home or Draw (1X)30.2%

Draw17.9%

Draw No Bet - Home15.0%

Exactly 1 Goal13.7%

Home Win12.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.6%

Under 5.5 Goals90.3%

Over 1.5 Goals81.9%

Under 4.5 Goals79.4%

Under 3.5 Goals61.9%

2-4 Goals61.2%

Over 2.5 Goals60.4%

1-3 Goals57.5%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals43.8%

3-4 Goals39.8%

Under 2.5 Goals39.6%

Over 3.5 Goals38.1%

4+ Goals38.1%

1-2 Goals35.1%

Exactly 3 Goals22.3%

Exactly 2 Goals21.4%

Over 4.5 Goals20.6%

Under 1.5 Goals18.1%

Over 5.5 Goals9.7%

Under 0.5 Goals4.4%

Exactly 0 Goals4.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score89.8%

Home Team to Score57.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)51.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)48.8%

Away Clean Sheet43.0%

Away Win to Nil38.6%

Home Clean Sheet10.2%

Home Win to Nil5.8%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.589.8%

Away Over 1.566.5%

Home Over 0.557.0%

Home Exactly 043.0%

Away Over 2.539.9%

Away 3+ Goals39.9%

Home Exactly 136.3%

Away Exactly 226.6%

Away Exactly 123.3%

Home Over 1.520.7%

Home Exactly 215.3%

Away Exactly 010.2%

Home Over 2.55.4%

Home 3+ Goals5.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.1%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)96.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away96.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)88.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home88.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)87.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away87.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)74.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home74.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)69.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)53.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home53.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)46.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away46.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)30.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home30.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)25.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away25.7%

Away to win by 3+25.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw23.3%

Away to win by 123.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw20.8%

Away to win by 220.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw13.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)12.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)11.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away11.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw8.6%

Home to win by 18.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw7.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away4.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)3.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home3.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw3.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw2.8%

Home to win by 22.8%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.9%

Home to win by 3+0.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.548.4%

BTTS & Over 2.542.7%

Away & No BTTS38.6%

Away & BTTS31.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.531.1%

Away & Under 2.521.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.517.7%

Draw & BTTS13.5%

Draw & Under 2.512.8%

BTTS & Under 2.58.4%

Home & Over 2.57.0%

Home & BTTS6.5%

Home & No BTTS5.8%

Home & Under 2.55.3%

Draw & Over 2.55.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.575.5%

HT Under 1.558.9%

HT Away Win51.5%

HT/FT Away/Away46.9%

2nd Half More Goals45.0%

HT Over 1.541.1%

HT Draw35.0%

1st Half More Goals31.6%

HT Under 0.524.5%

Equal Goals Each Half23.4%

HT Both Teams Score20.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away19.7%

HT Home Win13.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.5%

HT/FT Home/Home6.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home4.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Home/Away3.2%

HT/FT Away/Home0.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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