UEFA Champions League

FK Crvena Zvezda vs Larne

Kick-off 19:00 · Wed, Jul 29

📊 Our Prediction

Home Win

94% confidence

FK Crvena Zvezda 94.0% Draw 4.0% Larne 2.0%

Over 2.5 - 84% BTTS - 26%

🎯 Best Pick

Home Win

Form gap

🤝 Bookmakers agree - bookies say 89%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Attacking threat

82%

Home Clean Sheet

Defensive strength

71%

🤖 AI Match Analysis

FK Crvena Zvezda has a significant form gap over Larne, with a 4-0 win in their last meeting. Crvena Zvezda's attacking threat is high, with an expected goals rate of 4.5. Their defensive strength is also notable, with a 100% clean sheet rate in their last match. Key player performances will be crucial, but no major injuries are reported.

💡

Top Tip

FK Crvena Zvezda is likely to win at home

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

1X · Home or Draw covers 98% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 2.0% on the only losing outcome.

Form gap

Numbers behind this Home Win

1X · Home or Draw

98%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

Only the uncovered result loses

Bookmaker implied chance

89%

Market agrees with this pick

FK Crvena Zvezda

Form 1-0-0 Goals 4:0 Scored/game 4 Conceded/game 0

Larne

L W W

Form 2-0-1 Goals 3:5 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 1

FK Crvena Zvezda 1wins ·0 draws ·Larne 0wins

FK Crvena Zvezda 4-0 LarneJul 21, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

FK Crvena Zvezda win94.0%

Draw4.0%

Larne win2.0%

Over 1.5 goals95.2%

Over 2.5 goals83.6%

Over 3.5 goals69.3%

Both teams to score25.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.2%

Home Over 1.5

89.9%

HT Over 0.5

88.4%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home99.4%

Home or Draw (1X)95.5%

Home or Away (12)93.6%

Home Win93.1%

Both Halves Over 0.582.2%

Goal in Both Halves82.2%

Exactly 1 Goal4.0%

Draw or Away (X2)2.9%

Draw2.4%

Draw No Bet - Away0.6%

Away Win0.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.2%

Over 1.5 Goals91.2%

Over 2.5 Goals81.7%

Under 5.5 Goals69.1%

Over 3.5 Goals66.6%

4+ Goals66.6%

Under 4.5 Goals51.7%

Total Goals Even48.4%

Over 4.5 Goals48.3%

Total Goals Odd47.5%

2-4 Goals42.9%

Under 3.5 Goals33.4%

3-4 Goals33.4%

Over 5.5 Goals30.9%

1-3 Goals28.6%

2-3 Goals24.6%

Under 2.5 Goals18.3%

Exactly 3 Goals15.2%

1-2 Goals13.4%

Exactly 2 Goals9.5%

Under 1.5 Goals8.8%

Under 0.5 Goals4.8%

Exactly 0 Goals0.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)75.4%

Home Clean Sheet71.1%

Home Win to Nil70.3%

Away Team to Score24.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)24.6%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Exactly 071.1%

Away Over 0.524.9%

Away Exactly 121.3%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Away Over 1.53.5%

Away Exactly 23.2%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Away Over 2.50.3%

Away 3+ Goals0.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home95.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)93.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)86.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home86.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)73.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)73.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home73.5%

Home to win by 3+73.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)58.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away58.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)56.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home56.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)39.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away39.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)37.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home37.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)22.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away22.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)22.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home22.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw18.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw15.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw12.8%

Home to win by 212.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)9.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away9.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw6.8%

Home to win by 16.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away2.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw0.5%

Away to win by 10.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.1%

Away to win by 20.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Away to win by 3+0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.581.1%

Home & No BTTS70.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.558.2%

BTTS & Over 2.523.5%

Home & BTTS22.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.513.1%

Home & Under 2.512.0%

Draw & Under 2.51.9%

Draw & BTTS1.5%

BTTS & Under 2.51.1%

Draw & Over 2.50.4%

Away & Under 2.50.3%

Away & No BTTS0.3%

Away & Over 2.50.2%

Away & BTTS0.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.4%

HT Home Win83.2%

HT/FT Home/Home82.6%

HT Over 1.563.5%

2nd Half More Goals49.2%

HT Under 1.536.5%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

Equal Goals Each Half18.4%

HT Draw14.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.1%

HT Under 0.511.6%

HT Both Teams Score11.0%

HT Away Win1.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw1.5%

HT/FT Away/Home1.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw0.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw0.4%

HT/FT Away/Away0.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away0.2%

HT/FT Home/Away0.0%

🔎 API-Football Model

An independent statistical model, shown for comparison.

FK Crvena Zvezda win45%

Draw45%

Larne win10%

AdviceWinner : FK Crvena Zvezda

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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