UEFA Europa Conference League

FK Jablonec vs Brighton

Kick-off 17:45 · Thu, Oct 22

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

46% confidence

FK Jablonec 31.7% Draw 22.7% Brighton 45.6%

Over 2.5 - 75% BTTS - 74%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

77%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 8.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Brighton: 9 points versus 13 across the last 5 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.77 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.1%

Exact-score model probability

FK Jablonec

L W W W L

Form 3-0-2 Goals 8:5 Scored/game 1.6 Conceded/game 1

Brighton

W W W W D L

Form 4-1-1 Goals 19:5 Scored/game 3.17 Conceded/game 0.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

FK Jablonec win31.7%

Draw22.7%

Brighton win45.6%

Over 1.5 goals91.0%

Over 2.5 goals74.5%

Over 3.5 goals54.4%

Both teams to score73.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

89.9%

Away Team to Score

88.0%

Away Over 0.5

88.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)79.2%

Both Halves Over 0.572.9%

Goal in Both Halves72.9%

Draw or Away (X2)67.2%

Draw No Bet - Away58.7%

Home or Draw (1X)53.5%

Away Win46.5%

Draw No Bet - Home41.3%

Home Win32.7%

Draw20.7%

Exactly 1 Goal8.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.9%

Over 1.5 Goals89.9%

Under 5.5 Goals80.3%

Over 2.5 Goals74.4%

Under 4.5 Goals65.2%

2-4 Goals55.1%

Over 3.5 Goals54.3%

4+ Goals54.3%

Total Goals Odd50.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Under 3.5 Goals45.7%

1-3 Goals43.6%

3-4 Goals39.6%

2-3 Goals35.6%

Over 4.5 Goals34.8%

Under 2.5 Goals25.6%

1-2 Goals23.5%

Exactly 3 Goals20.1%

Over 5.5 Goals19.7%

Exactly 2 Goals15.5%

Under 1.5 Goals10.1%

Under 0.5 Goals2.1%

Exactly 0 Goals2.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score88.0%

Home Team to Score82.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)72.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)27.1%

Away Clean Sheet17.1%

Away Win to Nil15.0%

Home Clean Sheet12.0%

Home Win to Nil9.9%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.588.0%

Home Over 0.582.9%

Away Over 1.562.5%

Home Over 1.552.7%

Away Over 2.535.5%

Away 3+ Goals35.5%

Home Exactly 130.2%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 226.7%

Home Over 2.526.0%

Home 3+ Goals26.0%

Away Exactly 125.4%

Home Exactly 017.1%

Away Exactly 012.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)94.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home94.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)93.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away93.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)86.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home86.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)83.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away83.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)73.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home73.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)67.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away67.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)53.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home53.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)46.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)32.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)27.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away27.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.5%

Away to win by 119.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)16.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home16.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.2%

Home to win by 116.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw13.9%

Away to win by 213.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)13.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away13.1%

Away to win by 3+13.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw9.6%

Home to win by 29.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw7.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)6.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home6.9%

Home to win by 3+6.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)5.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away5.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw4.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.565.2%

Away & Over 2.537.5%

Away & BTTS31.4%

Home & Over 2.525.9%

Home & BTTS22.8%

Draw & BTTS18.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.517.8%

Away & No BTTS15.0%

Draw & Over 2.511.0%

Home & No BTTS9.9%

Draw & Under 2.59.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.2%

Away & Under 2.59.0%

BTTS & Under 2.57.7%

Home & Under 2.56.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.582.6%

HT Over 1.552.2%

HT Under 1.547.8%

2nd Half More Goals47.2%

HT Away Win37.7%

HT Both Teams Score33.7%

HT Draw33.3%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT/FT Away/Away29.3%

HT Home Win28.9%

Equal Goals Each Half20.7%

HT/FT Home/Home19.7%

HT Under 0.517.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away13.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home10.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Away3.8%

HT/FT Away/Home2.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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