UEFA Europa Conference League

FK Jablonec vs Rīgas FS

Full time · 2:0

📊 Our Prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

92% confidence

FK Jablonec 8.0% Draw 11.0% Rīgas FS 81.0%

Over 2.5 - 92% BTTS - 78%

✗ Pick missed (2:0)

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

High xG

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 36%

⚠️ AIs disagree

68%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Away Win

Strong form

85%

Both Teams Score (GG)

BTTS rate

78%

🤖 AI Match Analysis

FK Jablonec is in poor form, while Rīgas FS has a strong record. Rīgas FS has a high xG and a strong attacking threat. FK Jablonec's defense is vulnerable. With Rīgas FS's form and attacking power, they are likely to score. 5 goals.

💡

Top Tip

Rīgas FS to win with a high probability of over 2

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

Over 2.5 Goals is rated at 91.9% after combining both teams' recent goal output and defensive records.

High xG

Numbers behind this Over 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5 Goals probability

91.9%

Chance of 3+ total goals

FK Jablonec high-scoring games

50%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

Rīgas FS high-scoring games

50%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

Bookmaker implied chance

36%

Market does not fully agree

FK Jablonec

W L

Form 1-0-1 Goals 4:3 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.5

Rīgas FS

D W W W

Form 3-1-0 Goals 9:3 Scored/game 2.25 Conceded/game 0.75

📈 Probability Breakdown

FK Jablonec win8.0%

Draw11.0%

Rīgas FS win81.0%

Over 1.5 goals98.5%

Over 2.5 goals91.9%

Over 3.5 goals84.5%

Both teams to score77.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Draw No Bet - Away

92.0%

Both Halves Over 0.5

90.0%

Goal in Both Halves

90.0%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Away92.0%

Both Halves Over 0.590.0%

Goal in Both Halves90.0%

Draw or Away (X2)88.9%

Home or Away (12)87.8%

Away Win80.7%

Home or Draw (1X)15.2%

Draw8.2%

Draw No Bet - Home8.0%

Home Win7.0%

Exactly 1 Goal1.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.7%

Over 1.5 Goals94.3%

Over 2.5 Goals89.9%

Over 3.5 Goals81.1%

4+ Goals81.1%

Over 4.5 Goals67.9%

Over 5.5 Goals51.9%

Under 5.5 Goals48.1%

Total Goals Even48.0%

Total Goals Odd47.9%

Under 4.5 Goals32.1%

2-4 Goals26.4%

3-4 Goals22.0%

Under 3.5 Goals18.9%

1-3 Goals14.6%

2-3 Goals13.1%

Under 2.5 Goals10.1%

Exactly 3 Goals8.8%

1-2 Goals5.8%

Under 1.5 Goals5.7%

Exactly 2 Goals4.4%

Under 0.5 Goals4.3%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score94.9%

Home Team to Score75.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)74.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)25.6%

Away Clean Sheet20.7%

Away Win to Nil20.5%

Home Clean Sheet1.1%

Home Win to Nil0.9%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.594.9%

Away Over 1.589.9%

Away Over 2.578.6%

Away 3+ Goals78.6%

Home Over 0.575.3%

Home Over 1.543.5%

Home Exactly 131.8%

Home Exactly 224.3%

Home Exactly 020.7%

Home Over 2.519.1%

Home 3+ Goals19.1%

Away Exactly 211.2%

Away Exactly 15.0%

Away Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away95.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)93.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away93.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)88.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away88.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)85.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)80.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)74.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home74.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)68.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away68.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)60.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home60.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)52.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away52.3%

Away to win by 3+52.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)43.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home43.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)35.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away35.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)27.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home27.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)21.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away21.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw16.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw15.8%

Away to win by 215.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)15.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home15.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw14.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.6%

Away to win by 112.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)11.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away11.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw10.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)7.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw4.3%

Home to win by 14.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home2.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw1.8%

Home to win by 21.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.9%

Home to win by 3+0.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.577.2%

BTTS & Over 2.572.7%

Away & BTTS60.3%

Away & No BTTS20.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.517.2%

Draw & BTTS8.0%

Home & Over 2.56.4%

Draw & Over 2.56.3%

Home & BTTS6.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.4%

Away & Under 2.53.5%

Draw & Under 2.51.9%

BTTS & Under 2.51.7%

Home & No BTTS0.9%

Home & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.4%

HT Over 1.575.4%

HT Away Win68.7%

HT/FT Away/Away65.1%

2nd Half More Goals51.3%

HT Both Teams Score43.2%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.524.6%

HT Draw19.6%

Equal Goals Each Half16.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.3%

HT Home Win11.6%

HT Under 0.56.6%

HT/FT Home/Away5.2%

HT/FT Home/Home4.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home2.1%

HT/FT Away/Home1.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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