UEFA Europa Conference League

FK Partizan vs FK Tobol Kostanay

Full time · 3:0

📊 Our Prediction

Home Win

85% confidence

FK Partizan 85.0% Draw 12.0% FK Tobol Kostanay 3.0%

Over 2.5 - 61% BTTS - 25%

✓ Pick was correct (3:0)

🎯 Best Pick

Home Win

Strong form

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 71%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

High xG

80%

Home Clean Sheet

Defensive strength

75%

🤖 AI Match Analysis

FK Partizan's strong form and high xG suggest a dominant performance. With a significant pi-rating differential, they are likely to control the match. Their defensive strength, having kept clean sheets in their last two matches, also supports a potential clean sheet. FK Tobol Kostanay's inability to win in their last two matches further weakens their case.

💡

Top Tip

FK Partizan's strong form and defensive capabilities make Home Win the top pick

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

FK Tobol Kostanay's chance of scoring three or more is only 0.4%, which supports the selected team-goals market.

Strong form

Numbers behind this Home Win

FK Tobol Kostanay 3+ goals

0.4%

Model chance of scoring at least three

FK Tobol Kostanay under 3 goals

99.6%

Probability behind the selected NO market

Bookmaker implied chance

71%

Market does not fully agree

FK Partizan

W W

Form 2-0-0 Goals 5:0 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 0

FK Tobol Kostanay

D D

Form 0-2-0 Goals 2:2 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

FK Partizan win85.0%

Draw12.0%

FK Tobol Kostanay win3.0%

Over 1.5 goals83.0%

Over 2.5 goals60.7%

Over 3.5 goals39.0%

Both teams to score25.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Away (12)

91.1%

Under 5.5 Goals

90.0%

Home Win

88.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)97.6%

Draw No Bet - Home97.6%

Home or Away (12)91.1%

Home Win88.9%

Both Halves Over 0.562.8%

Goal in Both Halves62.8%

Exactly 1 Goal13.3%

Draw or Away (X2)10.8%

Draw8.6%

Draw No Bet - Away2.4%

Away Win2.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.5%

Under 5.5 Goals90.0%

Over 1.5 Goals82.3%

Under 4.5 Goals78.8%

Over 2.5 Goals61.2%

Under 3.5 Goals61.1%

2-4 Goals61.1%

1-3 Goals56.6%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

2-3 Goals43.4%

3-4 Goals40.0%

Over 3.5 Goals38.9%

4+ Goals38.9%

Under 2.5 Goals38.8%

1-2 Goals34.3%

Exactly 3 Goals22.3%

Over 4.5 Goals21.2%

Exactly 2 Goals21.1%

Under 1.5 Goals17.7%

Over 5.5 Goals10.0%

Under 0.5 Goals4.5%

Exactly 0 Goals4.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)75.6%

Home Clean Sheet73.9%

Home Win to Nil69.7%

Away Team to Score25.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)24.4%

Away Clean Sheet5.6%

Away Win to Nil1.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.1%

Home Over 1.577.8%

Away Exactly 073.9%

Home Over 2.554.5%

Home 3+ Goals54.5%

Away Over 0.525.8%

Home Exactly 223.3%

Away Exactly 122.2%

Home Exactly 116.2%

Home Exactly 05.6%

Away Over 1.53.7%

Away Exactly 23.3%

Away Over 2.50.4%

Away 3+ Goals0.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home99.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home97.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)88.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)86.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away86.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)72.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away72.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)70.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home70.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)51.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away51.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)48.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home48.1%

Home to win by 3+48.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)28.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away28.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)27.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home27.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw22.8%

Home to win by 222.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw20.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.0%

Home to win by 118.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw14.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)13.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home13.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)10.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away10.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw7.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)5.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home5.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw1.9%

Away to win by 11.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.2%

Away to win by 20.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Away to win by 3+0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & No BTTS69.7%

Home & Over 2.559.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.540.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.534.9%

Home & Under 2.529.3%

BTTS & Over 2.520.8%

Home & BTTS19.2%

Draw & Under 2.57.8%

Draw & BTTS4.5%

BTTS & Under 2.53.6%

Away & No BTTS1.5%

Away & Under 2.51.4%

Draw & Over 2.50.9%

Away & Over 2.50.7%

Away & BTTS0.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.576.0%

HT Home Win67.9%

HT/FT Home/Home66.6%

HT Under 1.558.2%

2nd Half More Goals45.2%

HT Over 1.541.8%

1st Half More Goals31.6%

HT Draw28.3%

HT Under 0.524.0%

Equal Goals Each Half23.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home21.0%

HT Both Teams Score9.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.3%

HT Away Win3.8%

HT/FT Away/Home1.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.2%

HT/FT Away/Away1.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.0%

HT/FT Home/Away0.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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