UEFA Europa Conference League

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Dinamo Tbilisi

Kick-off 18:00 · Thu, Jul 30

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

76% confidence

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 10.3% Draw 13.8% Dinamo Tbilisi 75.9%

Over 2.5 - 84% BTTS - 70%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 53%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-3 at 7.8%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Dinamo Tbilisi: 6 points versus 7 across the last 3 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.8%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

53%

Market does not fully agree

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

L W W

Form 2-0-1 Goals 5:5 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.67

Dinamo Tbilisi

W D W

Form 2-1-0 Goals 6:2 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 0.67

Head to head · last 1

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 0wins ·0 draws ·Dinamo Tbilisi 1wins

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 0-3 Dinamo TbilisiJul 23, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

FK Zalgiris Vilnius win10.3%

Draw13.8%

Dinamo Tbilisi win75.9%

Over 1.5 goals94.9%

Over 2.5 goals83.7%

Over 3.5 goals67.4%

Both teams to score70.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Draw or Away (X2)

88.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)

88.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away

88.5%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)88.5%

Draw No Bet - Away87.6%

Home or Away (12)86.7%

Both Halves Over 0.580.5%

Goal in Both Halves80.5%

Away Win76.0%

Home or Draw (1X)23.3%

Draw12.6%

Draw No Bet - Home12.4%

Home Win10.8%

Exactly 1 Goal4.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.3%

Over 1.5 Goals93.7%

Over 2.5 Goals83.1%

Under 5.5 Goals69.1%

Over 3.5 Goals66.9%

4+ Goals66.9%

Under 4.5 Goals51.9%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Over 4.5 Goals48.1%

2-4 Goals45.5%

3-4 Goals35.0%

Under 3.5 Goals33.1%

1-3 Goals31.4%

Over 5.5 Goals30.9%

2-3 Goals26.8%

Under 2.5 Goals16.9%

Exactly 3 Goals16.2%

1-2 Goals15.2%

Exactly 2 Goals10.6%

Under 1.5 Goals6.3%

Under 0.5 Goals1.7%

Exactly 0 Goals1.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score95.7%

Home Team to Score71.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)69.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)31.0%

Away Clean Sheet27.7%

Away Win to Nil26.7%

Home Clean Sheet3.6%

Home Win to Nil2.6%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.595.7%

Away Over 1.583.8%

Home Over 0.571.6%

Away Over 2.564.0%

Away 3+ Goals64.0%

Home Over 1.536.3%

Home Exactly 135.3%

Home Exactly 027.7%

Home Exactly 222.6%

Away Exactly 219.8%

Home Over 2.513.7%

Home 3+ Goals13.7%

Away Exactly 111.9%

Away Exactly 03.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away95.2%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)94.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)88.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away88.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)87.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home87.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)76.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home76.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)76.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)59.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home59.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)58.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away58.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)40.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home40.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)39.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away39.4%

Away to win by 3+39.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)23.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home23.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)23.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away23.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw19.0%

Away to win by 219.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.6%

Away to win by 117.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw16.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)11.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away11.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw11.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)10.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw6.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw6.7%

Home to win by 16.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)5.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away5.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)4.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home4.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw2.8%

Home to win by 22.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.2%

Home to win by 3+1.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.567.1%

BTTS & Over 2.564.8%

Away & BTTS49.3%

Away & No BTTS26.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.518.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.511.9%

Draw & BTTS11.6%

Away & Under 2.58.8%

Home & Over 2.58.7%

Home & BTTS8.2%

Draw & Over 2.57.3%

Draw & Under 2.55.2%

BTTS & Under 2.54.2%

Home & No BTTS2.6%

Home & Under 2.52.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.4%

HT Over 1.561.4%

HT Away Win59.9%

HT/FT Away/Away55.3%

2nd Half More Goals48.9%

HT Under 1.538.6%

HT Both Teams Score34.0%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw26.0%

Equal Goals Each Half18.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away16.7%

HT Home Win14.1%

HT Under 0.512.6%

HT/FT Home/Home6.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.7%

HT/FT Home/Away4.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home3.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Away/Home1.2%

🔎 API-Football Model

An independent statistical model, shown for comparison.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius win10%

Draw45%

Dinamo Tbilisi win45%

AdviceDouble chance : draw or Dinamo Tbilisi

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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