Brazil · Serie A

Flamengo vs Atletico-MG

Kick-off 00:00 · Tue, Oct 27

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

74% confidence

Flamengo 74.0% Draw 16.4% Atletico-MG 9.6%

Over 2.5 - 71% BTTS - 58%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

89%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 9.4%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Flamengo: 16 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.66 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.4%

Exact-score model probability

Flamengo

W W D W W W

Form 5-1-0 Goals 11:4 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 0.67

Atletico-MG

W D W D L W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 11:6 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Flamengo win74.0%

Draw16.4%

Atletico-MG win9.6%

Over 1.5 goals89.0%

Over 2.5 goals71.1%

Over 3.5 goals50.1%

Both teams to score58.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

91.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

91.8%

Home or Draw (1X)

89.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)89.4%

Draw No Bet - Home87.8%

Home or Away (12)85.1%

Home Win74.7%

Both Halves Over 0.570.2%

Goal in Both Halves70.2%

Draw or Away (X2)25.1%

Draw14.7%

Draw No Bet - Away12.2%

Away Win10.4%

Exactly 1 Goal9.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.3%

Over 1.5 Goals88.0%

Under 5.5 Goals83.5%

Over 2.5 Goals70.9%

Under 4.5 Goals69.3%

2-4 Goals57.3%

Over 3.5 Goals50.0%

Under 3.5 Goals50.0%

4+ Goals50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

1-3 Goals47.3%

3-4 Goals40.2%

2-3 Goals38.0%

Over 4.5 Goals30.7%

Under 2.5 Goals29.1%

1-2 Goals26.3%

Exactly 3 Goals20.9%

Exactly 2 Goals17.1%

Over 5.5 Goals16.5%

Under 1.5 Goals12.0%

Under 0.5 Goals2.7%

Exactly 0 Goals2.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score93.3%

Away Team to Score61.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)57.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)43.0%

Home Clean Sheet38.8%

Home Win to Nil36.3%

Away Clean Sheet6.5%

Away Win to Nil4.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.593.3%

Home Over 1.575.6%

Away Over 0.561.0%

Home Over 2.551.3%

Home 3+ Goals51.3%

Away Exactly 038.8%

Away Exactly 136.7%

Away Over 1.524.4%

Home Exactly 224.3%

Home Exactly 117.7%

Away Exactly 217.3%

Away Over 2.57.0%

Away 3+ Goals7.0%

Home Exactly 06.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)91.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away91.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)89.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home89.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)82.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away82.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)74.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)66.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away66.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)54.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home54.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)45.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away45.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)33.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home33.5%

Home to win by 3+33.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)25.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away25.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw20.7%

Home to win by 220.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.6%

Home to win by 120.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)17.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home17.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)10.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw9.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)8.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home8.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw7.1%

Away to win by 17.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.5%

Away to win by 22.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.8%

Away to win by 3+0.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.558.4%

BTTS & Over 2.550.5%

Home & BTTS38.5%

Home & No BTTS36.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.522.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.520.4%

Home & Under 2.516.3%

Draw & BTTS12.1%

Draw & Under 2.59.0%

Away & Over 2.56.9%

BTTS & Under 2.56.5%

Away & BTTS6.4%

Draw & Over 2.55.6%

Away & No BTTS4.0%

Away & Under 2.53.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.580.9%

HT Home Win56.8%

HT/FT Home/Home52.4%

HT Under 1.550.7%

HT Over 1.549.3%

2nd Half More Goals46.7%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Draw30.4%

HT Both Teams Score24.5%

Equal Goals Each Half21.3%

HT Under 0.519.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.8%

HT Away Win12.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.8%

HT/FT Away/Away5.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.8%

HT/FT Away/Home3.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Home/Away0.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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