Brazil · Serie A

Flamengo vs Botafogo

Kick-off 20:00 · Sun, Aug 30

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

44% confidence

Flamengo 44.0% Draw 28.1% Botafogo 27.9%

Over 2.5 - 52% BTTS - 57%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Flamengo: 11 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.9%

Exact-score model probability

Flamengo

L W W D D W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 14:5 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 0.83

Botafogo

L L D W D W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 6:6 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Flamengo win44.0%

Draw28.1%

Botafogo win27.9%

Over 1.5 goals77.8%

Over 2.5 goals52.1%

Over 3.5 goals29.9%

Both teams to score56.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

90.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

90.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

87.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)75.0%

Home or Draw (1X)70.6%

Draw No Bet - Home60.7%

Both Halves Over 0.555.6%

Goal in Both Halves55.6%

Draw or Away (X2)54.5%

Home Win45.5%

Draw No Bet - Away39.3%

Away Win29.4%

Draw25.0%

Exactly 1 Goal17.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals93.8%

Over 0.5 Goals93.7%

Under 4.5 Goals85.4%

Over 1.5 Goals76.2%

Under 3.5 Goals70.1%

1-3 Goals63.7%

2-4 Goals61.6%

Over 2.5 Goals52.1%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals47.9%

2-3 Goals46.3%

1-2 Goals41.6%

3-4 Goals37.5%

Over 3.5 Goals29.9%

4+ Goals29.9%

Exactly 2 Goals24.1%

Under 1.5 Goals23.8%

Exactly 3 Goals22.2%

Over 4.5 Goals14.6%

Under 0.5 Goals6.3%

Exactly 0 Goals6.3%

Over 5.5 Goals6.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score78.9%

Away Team to Score70.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)55.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)44.8%

Home Clean Sheet30.0%

Home Win to Nil23.7%

Away Clean Sheet21.1%

Away Win to Nil14.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.578.9%

Away Over 0.570.0%

Home Over 1.546.1%

Away Exactly 136.1%

Away Over 1.533.8%

Home Exactly 132.8%

Away Exactly 030.0%

Home Exactly 225.6%

Away Exactly 221.7%

Home Exactly 021.1%

Home Over 2.520.6%

Home 3+ Goals20.6%

Away Over 2.512.1%

Away 3+ Goals12.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)90.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away90.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)87.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home87.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)76.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away76.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)70.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home70.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)54.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away54.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)45.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)29.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)23.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home23.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.5%

Home to win by 122.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.3%

Away to win by 117.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.7%

Home to win by 213.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)12.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away12.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)9.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home9.3%

Home to win by 3+9.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.2%

Away to win by 28.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.9%

Away to win by 3+3.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.543.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.536.0%

Home & Over 2.528.0%

Home & No BTTS23.7%

Home & BTTS21.8%

Draw & BTTS18.7%

Draw & Under 2.518.2%

Home & Under 2.517.5%

Away & Over 2.517.2%

Away & BTTS14.7%

Away & No BTTS14.7%

Away & Under 2.512.2%

BTTS & Under 2.511.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.7%

Draw & Over 2.56.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.571.1%

HT Under 1.564.7%

2nd Half More Goals43.7%

HT Draw40.9%

HT Over 1.535.3%

HT Home Win34.6%

1st Half More Goals31.1%

HT Under 0.528.9%

HT/FT Home/Home27.6%

Equal Goals Each Half25.2%

HT Away Win24.5%

HT Both Teams Score21.1%

HT/FT Away/Away16.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw14.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Away/Home2.6%

HT/FT Home/Away1.9%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners81.5%

Under 10.5 Corners72.1%

Under 9.5 Corners60.4%

Home Most Corners56.0%

Home Over 4.5 Corners54.5%

Over 8.5 Corners52.8%

Under 8.5 Corners47.2%

Over 9.5 Corners39.6%

Away Over 4.5 Corners36.3%

Away Most Corners31.1%

Over 10.5 Corners27.9%

Over 11.5 Corners18.5%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards82.9%

Over 2.5 Cards71.6%

Under 4.5 Cards68.6%

Over 3.5 Cards50.8%

Under 3.5 Cards49.2%

Over 4.5 Cards31.4%

Under 2.5 Cards28.4%

Over 5.5 Cards17.1%

Over 0.5 Red Cards14.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions