Brazil · Serie A

Flamengo vs Corinthians

Kick-off 21:30 · Sun, Sep 13

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

73% confidence

Flamengo 72.8% Draw 17.0% Corinthians 10.2%

Over 2.5 - 70% BTTS - 58%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

89%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

73%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 9.5%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Flamengo: 15 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.16 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.5%

Exact-score model probability

Flamengo

W W W L W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 14:3 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 0.5

Corinthians

L L L L W D

Form 1-1-4 Goals 5:7 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Flamengo win72.8%

Draw17.0%

Corinthians win10.2%

Over 1.5 goals88.5%

Over 2.5 goals70.0%

Over 3.5 goals48.8%

Both teams to score58.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

88.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

88.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

88.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)88.8%

Draw No Bet - Home87.0%

Home or Away (12)84.6%

Home Win73.6%

Both Halves Over 0.569.4%

Goal in Both Halves69.4%

Draw or Away (X2)26.2%

Draw15.2%

Draw No Bet - Away13.0%

Away Win11.0%

Exactly 1 Goal9.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.1%

Over 1.5 Goals87.4%

Under 5.5 Goals84.3%

Under 4.5 Goals70.4%

Over 2.5 Goals69.9%

2-4 Goals57.9%

Under 3.5 Goals51.3%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals48.7%

4+ Goals48.7%

1-3 Goals48.4%

3-4 Goals40.3%

2-3 Goals38.7%

Under 2.5 Goals30.1%

Over 4.5 Goals29.6%

1-2 Goals27.2%

Exactly 3 Goals21.2%

Exactly 2 Goals17.5%

Over 5.5 Goals15.7%

Under 1.5 Goals12.6%

Under 0.5 Goals2.9%

Exactly 0 Goals2.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score92.9%

Away Team to Score61.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)57.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)43.0%

Home Clean Sheet38.5%

Home Win to Nil35.9%

Away Clean Sheet6.9%

Away Win to Nil4.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.592.9%

Home Over 1.574.4%

Away Over 0.561.3%

Home Over 2.549.7%

Home 3+ Goals49.7%

Away Exactly 038.5%

Away Exactly 136.7%

Home Exactly 224.7%

Away Over 1.524.6%

Home Exactly 118.5%

Away Exactly 217.5%

Away Over 2.57.2%

Away 3+ Goals7.2%

Home Exactly 06.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)92.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away92.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)88.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home88.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)83.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away83.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)73.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)67.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away67.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)52.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home52.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)47.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away47.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)32.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home32.0%

Home to win by 3+32.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)26.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away26.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.0%

Home to win by 121.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw20.6%

Home to win by 220.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)16.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home16.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)11.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw9.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw7.5%

Away to win by 17.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)7.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home7.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.6%

Away to win by 22.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.9%

Away to win by 3+0.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.556.9%

BTTS & Over 2.550.2%

Home & BTTS37.7%

Home & No BTTS35.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.523.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.519.7%

Home & Under 2.516.7%

Draw & BTTS12.6%

Draw & Under 2.59.5%

Away & Over 2.57.2%

BTTS & Under 2.56.8%

Away & BTTS6.7%

Draw & Over 2.55.8%

Away & No BTTS4.3%

Away & Under 2.53.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.580.4%

HT Home Win55.7%

HT Under 1.551.6%

HT/FT Home/Home51.3%

HT Over 1.548.4%

2nd Half More Goals46.5%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Draw31.1%

HT Both Teams Score24.4%

Equal Goals Each Half21.5%

HT Under 0.519.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.8%

HT Away Win13.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.2%

HT/FT Away/Away6.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.1%

HT/FT Away/Home3.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.5%

HT/FT Home/Away0.9%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners96.6%

Under 10.5 Corners93.3%

Under 9.5 Corners87.7%

Under 8.5 Corners79.2%

Home Most Corners57.6%

Home Over 4.5 Corners32.2%

Away Most Corners27.6%

Over 8.5 Corners20.8%

Away Over 4.5 Corners14.5%

Over 9.5 Corners12.3%

Over 10.5 Corners6.7%

Over 11.5 Corners3.4%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards87.4%

Under 4.5 Cards74.9%

Over 2.5 Cards65.5%

Under 3.5 Cards56.4%

Over 3.5 Cards43.6%

Under 2.5 Cards34.5%

Over 4.5 Cards25.1%

Over 0.5 Red Cards13.5%

Over 5.5 Cards12.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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