Brazil · Serie A

Flamengo vs Fluminense

Kick-off 21:30 · Sun, Oct 11

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

78% confidence

Flamengo 78.2% Draw 13.4% Fluminense 8.4%

Over 2.5 - 81% BTTS - 64%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

92%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

78%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 8.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.1%

Exact-score model probability

Flamengo

D W W W W W

Form 5-1-0 Goals 12:4 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 0.67

Fluminense

W W W D W W

Form 5-1-0 Goals 16:7 Scored/game 2.67 Conceded/game 1.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Flamengo win78.2%

Draw13.4%

Fluminense win8.4%

Over 1.5 goals93.6%

Over 2.5 goals80.5%

Over 3.5 goals62.6%

Both teams to score64.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

90.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

90.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

90.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)90.4%

Draw No Bet - Home89.7%

Home or Away (12)87.3%

Home Win78.3%

Both Halves Over 0.577.8%

Goal in Both Halves77.8%

Draw or Away (X2)21.1%

Draw12.1%

Draw No Bet - Away10.3%

Away Win9.0%

Exactly 1 Goal5.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.1%

Over 1.5 Goals92.4%

Over 2.5 Goals80.0%

Under 5.5 Goals73.8%

Over 3.5 Goals62.2%

4+ Goals62.2%

Under 4.5 Goals57.1%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Total Goals Even49.7%

2-4 Goals49.4%

Over 4.5 Goals42.9%

Under 3.5 Goals37.8%

3-4 Goals37.1%

1-3 Goals35.8%

2-3 Goals30.1%

Over 5.5 Goals26.2%

Under 2.5 Goals20.0%

1-2 Goals18.0%

Exactly 3 Goals17.8%

Exactly 2 Goals12.3%

Under 1.5 Goals7.6%

Under 0.5 Goals1.9%

Exactly 0 Goals1.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.5%

Away Team to Score65.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)63.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)36.7%

Home Clean Sheet33.5%

Home Win to Nil32.2%

Away Clean Sheet3.9%

Away Win to Nil2.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.5%

Home Over 1.582.8%

Away Over 0.565.9%

Home Over 2.562.3%

Home 3+ Goals62.3%

Away Exactly 136.4%

Away Exactly 033.5%

Away Over 1.529.5%

Home Exactly 220.5%

Away Exactly 219.8%

Home Exactly 112.7%

Away Over 2.59.7%

Away 3+ Goals9.7%

Home Exactly 03.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)90.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home90.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)87.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away87.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)78.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)75.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away75.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)60.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home60.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)58.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away58.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)40.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home40.9%

Home to win by 3+40.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)38.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away38.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)24.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home24.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)21.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away21.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.6%

Home to win by 219.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.8%

Home to win by 117.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)12.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home12.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw11.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)9.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.0%

Away to win by 16.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)5.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home5.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.2%

Away to win by 22.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.8%

Away to win by 3+0.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.567.1%

BTTS & Over 2.558.7%

Home & BTTS46.2%

Home & No BTTS32.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.521.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.514.7%

Home & Under 2.511.2%

Draw & BTTS10.7%

Away & Over 2.56.8%

Away & BTTS6.4%

Draw & Over 2.56.1%

Draw & Under 2.56.0%

BTTS & Under 2.54.6%

Away & No BTTS2.6%

Away & Under 2.52.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.8%

HT Home Win61.3%

HT Over 1.558.0%

HT/FT Home/Home57.3%

2nd Half More Goals48.3%

HT Under 1.542.0%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Both Teams Score29.7%

HT Draw26.4%

Equal Goals Each Half19.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.4%

HT Under 0.514.2%

HT Away Win12.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.8%

HT/FT Away/Away4.9%

HT/FT Away/Home4.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Home/Away0.9%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners93.7%

Under 10.5 Corners88.6%

Under 9.5 Corners80.9%

Under 8.5 Corners70.2%

Away Most Corners48.0%

Home Most Corners37.0%

Away Over 4.5 Corners33.1%

Over 8.5 Corners29.8%

Home Over 4.5 Corners25.9%

Over 9.5 Corners19.1%

Over 10.5 Corners11.4%

Over 11.5 Corners6.3%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards92.8%

Under 4.5 Cards83.6%

Under 3.5 Cards67.5%

Over 2.5 Cards54.8%

Under 2.5 Cards45.2%

Over 3.5 Cards32.5%

Over 4.5 Cards16.4%

Over 0.5 Red Cards11.5%

Over 5.5 Cards7.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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