Brazil · Serie A

Flamengo vs Gremio

Kick-off 23:30 · Wed, Nov 4

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

84% confidence

Flamengo 84.0% Draw 11.9% Gremio 4.1%

Over 2.5 - 69% BTTS - 44%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

88%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

84%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 12.3%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Flamengo: 16 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12.3%

Exact-score model probability

Flamengo

W W W D W W

Form 5-1-0 Goals 14:5 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 0.83

Gremio

W W L D D D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 7:6 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 1

Flamengo 1wins ·0 draws ·Gremio 0wins

Flamengo 1-0 GremioMay 10, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Flamengo win84.0%

Draw11.9%

Gremio win4.1%

Over 1.5 goals87.9%

Over 2.5 goals69.3%

Over 3.5 goals48.0%

Both teams to score43.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Away (12)

89.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

87.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

87.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)94.9%

Draw No Bet - Home94.6%

Home or Away (12)89.1%

Home Win84.3%

Both Halves Over 0.568.9%

Goal in Both Halves68.9%

Draw or Away (X2)15.3%

Draw10.5%

Exactly 1 Goal9.9%

Draw No Bet - Away5.4%

Away Win4.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.9%

Over 1.5 Goals86.9%

Under 5.5 Goals85.0%

Under 4.5 Goals71.3%

Over 2.5 Goals69.1%

2-4 Goals58.2%

Under 3.5 Goals52.2%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

1-3 Goals49.1%

Over 3.5 Goals47.8%

4+ Goals47.8%

3-4 Goals40.4%

2-3 Goals39.1%

Under 2.5 Goals30.9%

Over 4.5 Goals28.7%

1-2 Goals27.8%

Exactly 3 Goals21.3%

Exactly 2 Goals17.8%

Over 5.5 Goals15.0%

Under 1.5 Goals13.1%

Under 0.5 Goals3.1%

Exactly 0 Goals2.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)57.1%

Home Clean Sheet54.5%

Home Win to Nil51.7%

Away Team to Score45.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)42.9%

Away Clean Sheet5.1%

Away Win to Nil2.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.6%

Home Over 1.579.4%

Home Over 2.556.9%

Home 3+ Goals56.9%

Away Exactly 054.5%

Away Over 0.545.2%

Away Exactly 132.9%

Home Exactly 222.5%

Home Exactly 115.1%

Away Over 1.512.3%

Away Exactly 29.9%

Home Exactly 05.1%

Away Over 2.52.3%

Away 3+ Goals2.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home98.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)94.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home94.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)87.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away87.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)84.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)74.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away74.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)66.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home66.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)55.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away55.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)44.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home44.4%

Home to win by 3+44.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)33.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away33.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)25.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home25.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw21.6%

Home to win by 221.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw18.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.3%

Home to win by 118.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)15.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away15.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw13.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)12.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home12.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw7.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)5.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home5.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw3.7%

Away to win by 13.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.9%

Away to win by 20.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.2%

Away to win by 3+0.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.563.7%

Home & No BTTS51.7%

BTTS & Over 2.537.9%

Home & BTTS32.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.531.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.525.5%

Home & Under 2.520.6%

Draw & Under 2.57.8%

Draw & BTTS7.7%

BTTS & Under 2.55.0%

Draw & Over 2.52.8%

Away & Over 2.52.6%

Away & BTTS2.5%

Away & No BTTS2.3%

Away & Under 2.52.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.580.1%

HT Home Win64.7%

HT/FT Home/Home62.3%

HT Under 1.552.1%

HT Over 1.547.9%

2nd Half More Goals46.4%

1st Half More Goals31.9%

HT Draw27.9%

Equal Goals Each Half21.7%

HT Under 0.519.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home19.6%

HT Both Teams Score17.6%

HT Away Win7.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.3%

HT/FT Away/Home2.8%

HT/FT Away/Away2.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.0%

HT/FT Home/Away0.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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