Brazil · Serie A

Flamengo vs Mirassol

Kick-off 23:30 · Wed, Sep 2

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

83% confidence

Flamengo 82.6% Draw 11.0% Mirassol 6.4%

Over 2.5 - 83% BTTS - 63%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw No Bet - Home

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ AIs disagree

66%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

1X · Home or Draw covers 93.6% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 6.4% on the only losing outcome.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Flamengo: 11 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.34 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

1X · Home or Draw

93.6%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

6.4%

Only the uncovered result loses

Flamengo

W L W W D D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 13:5 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 0.83

Mirassol

D D L L W D

Form 1-3-2 Goals 7:12 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 2

Head to head · last 1

Flamengo 1wins ·0 draws ·Mirassol 0wins

Flamengo 5-1 MirassolAug 16, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Flamengo win82.6%

Draw11.0%

Mirassol win6.4%

Over 1.5 goals94.7%

Over 2.5 goals83.4%

Over 3.5 goals66.9%

Both teams to score63.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 11.5 Corners

91.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

91.5%

Home or Away (12)

89.0%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home92.4%

Home or Draw (1X)92.2%

Home or Away (12)89.0%

Home Win82.2%

Both Halves Over 0.580.3%

Goal in Both Halves80.3%

Draw or Away (X2)16.7%

Draw9.9%

Draw No Bet - Away7.6%

Away Win6.7%

Exactly 1 Goal4.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.9%

Over 1.5 Goals93.2%

Over 2.5 Goals82.5%

Under 5.5 Goals69.9%

Over 3.5 Goals66.1%

4+ Goals66.1%

Under 4.5 Goals52.6%

Total Goals Even49.5%

Total Goals Odd49.4%

Over 4.5 Goals47.4%

2-4 Goals45.9%

3-4 Goals35.2%

Under 3.5 Goals33.9%

1-3 Goals31.7%

Over 5.5 Goals30.1%

2-3 Goals27.1%

Under 2.5 Goals17.5%

Exactly 3 Goals16.4%

1-2 Goals15.4%

Exactly 2 Goals10.7%

Under 1.5 Goals6.8%

Under 0.5 Goals2.1%

Exactly 0 Goals1.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.1%

Away Team to Score63.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)61.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)38.2%

Home Clean Sheet35.2%

Home Win to Nil34.2%

Away Clean Sheet2.9%

Away Win to Nil1.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 1.585.9%

Home Over 2.567.9%

Home 3+ Goals67.9%

Away Over 0.563.7%

Away Exactly 136.4%

Away Exactly 035.2%

Away Over 1.527.3%

Away Exactly 218.8%

Home Exactly 218.1%

Home Exactly 110.2%

Away Over 2.58.5%

Away 3+ Goals8.5%

Home Exactly 02.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)92.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home92.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)91.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)82.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away82.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)82.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)69.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away69.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)66.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home66.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)51.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away51.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)47.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home47.5%

Home to win by 3+47.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)32.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away32.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)29.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home29.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.9%

Home to win by 218.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)16.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away16.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)16.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home16.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.8%

Home to win by 115.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw13.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)7.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home7.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)6.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw4.6%

Away to win by 14.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.6%

Away to win by 21.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.6%

Away to win by 3+0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.572.2%

BTTS & Over 2.558.1%

Home & BTTS48.0%

Home & No BTTS34.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.524.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.512.7%

Home & Under 2.510.0%

Draw & BTTS8.9%

Draw & Over 2.55.2%

Away & Over 2.55.1%

Away & BTTS4.9%

Draw & Under 2.54.8%

BTTS & Under 2.53.7%

Away & No BTTS1.8%

Away & Under 2.51.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.3%

HT Home Win65.6%

HT/FT Home/Home62.2%

HT Over 1.561.1%

2nd Half More Goals48.8%

HT Under 1.538.9%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Both Teams Score29.6%

HT Draw24.0%

Equal Goals Each Half18.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.9%

HT Under 0.512.7%

HT Away Win10.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Away/Home4.1%

HT/FT Away/Away3.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.4%

HT/FT Home/Away0.7%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners91.8%

Under 10.5 Corners85.9%

Under 9.5 Corners77.2%

Under 8.5 Corners65.6%

Home Most Corners61.2%

Home Over 4.5 Corners45.2%

Over 8.5 Corners34.4%

Away Most Corners25.5%

Over 9.5 Corners22.8%

Away Over 4.5 Corners20.6%

Over 10.5 Corners14.1%

Over 11.5 Corners8.2%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards94.3%

Under 4.5 Cards86.2%

Under 3.5 Cards71.2%

Over 2.5 Cards50.8%

Under 2.5 Cards49.2%

Over 3.5 Cards28.8%

Over 4.5 Cards13.8%

Over 0.5 Red Cards10.8%

Over 5.5 Cards5.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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