Brazil · Serie A
Flamengo vs Sao Paulo
📊 Our Prediction
Home or Draw (1X)
80% confidence
Over 2.5 - 86%
BTTS - 71%
🎯 Best Pick
Home or Draw (1X)
High scoring
⚠️ Market disagrees
- bookies say 43%
🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree
▸ Show 2 alternatives
Home or Draw (1X)
Flamengo's form
Both Teams Score (GG)
Sao Paulo's offense
🤖 AI Match Analysis
Flamengo has a significant form gap over Sao Paulo, with a strong attacking threat led by their key players. Sao Paulo's defensive strength is a concern, especially with injuries to key players like Lucas Moura. The H2H significance is limited due to lack of recent meetings. Flamengo's home advantage and Sao Paulo's poor away form also play a role. With Flamengo's strong offense and Sao Paulo's ability to score, the match is likely to have multiple goals. 5 Goals is the strongest pick due to the high scoring potential of both teams.
Top Tip
Over 2
📈 Probability Breakdown
Flamengo win80.0%
Draw12.0%
Sao Paulo win8.0%
Over 1.5 goals95.8%
Over 2.5 goals86.0%
Over 3.5 goals70.8%
Both teams to score70.8%
🎯 Full Market Board
Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.
Home or Draw (1X)
89.5%
Draw No Bet - Home
89.3%
HT Over 0.5
88.7%
Over 0.5 Goals98.1%
Home Team to Score96.1%
Home Over 0.596.1%
Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.5%
Over 1.5 Goals94.3%
Home or Draw (1X)89.5%
Draw No Bet - Home89.3%
HT Over 0.588.7%
Home or Away (12)87.6%
Home Over 1.585.9%
Over 2.5 Goals85.0%
Both Halves Over 0.582.5%
Goal in Both Halves82.5%
Home Win78.2%
Away Team to Score71.4%
Away Over 0.571.4%
Home & Over 2.570.4%
Over 3.5 Goals70.0%
4+ Goals70.0%
Both Teams Score (GG)69.4%
Home Over 2.567.9%
Home 3+ Goals67.9%
BTTS & Over 2.565.7%
Under 5.5 Goals65.5%
HT Over 1.564.0%
HT Home Win62.4%
Home -1.5 (Handicap)61.8%
HT/FT Home/Home58.2%
Over 4.5 Goals52.0%
Home & BTTS51.5%
Total Goals Even49.5%
Total Goals Odd49.4%
2nd Half More Goals49.3%
Under 4.5 Goals48.0%
Home -2.5 (Handicap)43.2%
Home to win by 3+43.2%
2-4 Goals42.3%
Away +1.5 (Handicap)37.1%
Away Over 1.536.2%
HT Under 1.536.0%
Away Exactly 135.2%
HT Both Teams Score34.9%
Over 5.5 Goals34.5%
3-4 Goals33.0%
1st Half More Goals32.4%
No Both Teams Score (NG)30.6%
Under 3.5 Goals30.0%
1-3 Goals28.1%
Home Clean Sheet27.5%
Away Exactly 027.5%
Home Win to Nil26.7%
Home & No BTTS26.7%
HT Draw24.5%
2-3 Goals24.2%
Away Exactly 222.5%
Draw or Away (X2)20.7%
No BTTS & Over 2.519.3%
Home to win by 218.6%
Equal Goals Each Half18.3%
Home Exactly 218.0%
Home to win by 116.5%
HT/FT Draw/Home16.4%
Under 2.5 Goals15.0%
Exactly 3 Goals15.0%
Away Over 2.513.7%
Away 3+ Goals13.7%
1-2 Goals13.1%
HT Away Win13.1%
Draw11.3%
HT Under 0.511.3%
Draw No Bet - Away10.7%
Draw & BTTS10.5%
No BTTS & Under 2.510.3%
Home Exactly 110.1%
Away Win9.4%
Exactly 2 Goals9.3%
Home & Under 2.57.8%
Away & Over 2.57.7%
Away & BTTS7.3%
Draw & Over 2.56.9%
Away to win by 15.9%
Under 1.5 Goals5.7%
HT/FT Away/Away5.2%
HT/FT Draw/Draw5.0%
HT/FT Away/Home4.7%
Draw & Under 2.54.4%
Exactly 1 Goal3.8%
BTTS & Under 2.53.6%
Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.4%
HT/FT Draw/Away3.1%
HT/FT Away/Draw3.1%
HT/FT Home/Draw3.1%
Away Clean Sheet2.9%
Home Exactly 02.9%
Away to win by 22.4%
Away Win to Nil2.1%
Away & No BTTS2.1%
Under 0.5 Goals1.9%
Away & Under 2.51.7%
HT/FT Home/Away1.1%
Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.0%
Away to win by 3+1.0%
Exactly 0 Goals0.8%
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Sao Paulo
Lucas Moura
Achilles Tendon Injury
Sabino
Injury
R. Toloi
Injury
Flamengo
Lucas Paqueta
Muscle Injury
N. de la Cruz
Inactive
Leo Ortiz
Injury
G. Plata
Injury
Luiz Araujo
Inactive
🔎 API-Football Model
An independent statistical model, shown for comparison.
Flamengo win45%
Draw45%
Sao Paulo win10%
AdviceDouble chance : Flamengo or draw
How we predict:
Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.